Reds vs Phillies Prediction 5/20/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, May 20^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 25-24 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 13-13 home record and are coming off a 4-1 loss against the Reds. They will face the Guardians and the Padres next.

The Phillies have a .232 batting average this season, .300 OBP and .392 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .321 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 36, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 2-3 record, 5.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 25-24 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL Central. They have a 12-13 away record and are coming off a 4-1 win against the Phillies. They will face the Cardinals and the Mets next.

The Reds have a .226 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 32 and adding a team-high 11 home runs.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 3-2 record, 4.21 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: May 20, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 2-3      ERA: 5.91
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Reds: 3-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last nine home games against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road day games.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 4.21
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Reds and Phillies.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Phillies’ last six games.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against the Phillies.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Reds’ last six games as underdogs against the Phillies have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven Wednesday games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of Aaron Nola’s last seven appearances as a starter.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against the Reds.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in 20 of his last 25 home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against the Reds.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL East opponents.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 17 road games.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (58) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (466).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (142).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (228).
• The Reds rank 27th in the league for batting average this season (.226).

Reds vs Phillies Prediction

The Reds are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Phillies but are 1-3 their last 4 visits in Philadelphia.

In this Reds vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -150 home favorites. The Reds won yesterday and tied the series but the Phillies have been playing very good baseball lately and are facing a struggling Andrew Abbott who has a 4+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP. The Phillies have been very good against lefties lately and while Nola has been struggling this season, he has been better at home and the Phillies have a better bullpen, so I like them to bounce back at home in this matchup.