Reds vs Phillies Prediction 5/18/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, May 18^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 24-23 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 12-12 home record and are coming off a 6-0 win against the Pirates. They will face the Guardians and the Padres next.

The Phillies have a .235 batting average this season, .302 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .329 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 36. Kyle Schwarber adds a team high 20 home runs.

Andrew Painter (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 1-4 record, 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 24-23 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 11-12 away record and are coming off a 10-3 loss against the Guardians. They will face the Cardinals and the Mets next.

The Reds have a .226 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .392 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .302 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 31. Elly De La Cruz adds a team high 11 home runs.

Nick Lodolo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 0-1 record, 8.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: May 18, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Painter      Record this season: 1-4      ERA: 6.21
• Home Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Reds: –

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last 10 road games following a road loss.
• The Phillies have won seven of their last eight games.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 8.68
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites against the Reds following a road win.
• The Reds have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Phillies’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last 10 games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last five home games against NL opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 14 games as favorites.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL East opponents.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 15 road games.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (57) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (452).
• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.265).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.226).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (221).

Reds vs Phillies Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Phillies have won their last two meetings in Philadelphia.

In this Reds vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -125 home favorites. Both pitchers have been terrible in this matchup with a combined 14.89 ERA, with Lodolo looking abysmal in his two starts this season. The Reds have the 27^th bullpen ERA and the Phillies’ offense has been cooking lately with 23 runs in their last three games. The Reds’ last six games have gone over the total and I expect another high-scoring affair today. Take the over 10 runs.