Reds vs Pirates Prediction 6/28/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, June 28^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 41-42 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 22-22 home record and are coming off a 7-9 home defeat against the Reds. They will face the Phillies and the Nationals next.

The Pirates have a .257 batting average this season, .335 OBP and .413 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .295 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 56, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Mitch Keller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 5-5 record, 4.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 39-42 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 20-20 road record and are coming off a 9-7 road win against the Pirates. They will face the Brewers and the Orioles next.

The Reds have a .226 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .268 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 57, adding a team-high 15 home runs.

Brady Singer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 3-6 record, 4.81 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: June 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller      Record this season: 5-5      ERA: 4.89
• Home Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Reds: 2-2

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Reds have lost eight of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games at PNC Park against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against the Reds following a loss.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against the Reds.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brady Singer      Record this season: 3-6      ERA: 4.81
• Road Record: 0-4
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-4

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The road team has won each of the Reds’ last seven games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games as favorites.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Pirates’ last 11 games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Reds’ last eight road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Brady Singer’s last seven road appearances as a starter.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last four games.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Pirates as favorites against the Reds.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 17 games.
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in three of his four previous appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.402) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Brady Singer has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Brady Singer has recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances in day games.
• Blake Dunn has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (741).
• The Pirates rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (420).
• The Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (617).
• The Reds rank T28th in the league for triples this season (6).

Reds vs Pirates Prediction

The Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Reds but have won their last two meetings in Pittsburgh.

In this Reds vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -130 home favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup as they both have 4.80+ ERA and their home/away splits have been even worse. Keller sits on a 5.62 home ERA for the Pirates while Singer has a 0-4 record and 6.32 ERA on the road. Both games in this series have been high-scoring ones with 10 and 16 total runs, so take the over 8.5 in this one.