Reds vs Pirates Prediction 9/25/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates meet on Wednesday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. Here’s a Reds vs Pirates prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Pirates vs Reds pick.

Pirates Held On 

The Pirates did everything in their power to blow the game in the 9th inning on Wednesday but they somehow came back in extra innings. Paul Skenes again had a dominant start going six innings and not giving up a run, but once again the rest of the team let him down, and he failed to add the victory to his record. 

The Pirates are averaging 3.59 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.03 runs per game. The offense is ranked 30th while the pitching is ranked 6th. Oneil Cruz is having a strong season and has hit 20 home runs and driven in 61 RBIs. Getting the start for the Pirates will be Braxton Ashcraft who sits with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 2.62. He hasn’t been going deep into games. In his last start against the Athletics, he went three innings giving up zero hits and zero runs. 

Why the Pirates Will Beat the Reds

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Pirates and Reds.
• The Reds have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Pirates following a loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight day games at Great American Ball Park following an extra innings loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Reds.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Reds Need This Win

The Reds really need this win, as they are fighting for a playoff spot. If they lose this game it could end up being the difference as they were defeated. The Reds made the comeback late, but they couldn’t pick up the key hits late, and that led to the defeat. Noevli Marte and Tyler Stephenson both hit solo shots to help pace the offense. 

The Reds are averaging 4.45 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.25 runs per game. The offense is ranked 14th while the pitching is ranked 12th. This is a key game for the Reds, and one they really need to win. Nick Lodolo sits with an 8-8 record and an ERA of 3.44. Against the Chicago Cubs in his last start he went 4.2 innings giving up nine hits and four runs. It really could have been even more runs with how bad he pitched. 

Why the Reds Will Beat the Pirates

• The Reds have won each of their last eight day games at Great American Ball Park following a loss.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.

Reds vs Pirates Prediction

There is a ton of value here with the Pirates, at least in the first five innings. Ashcraft hasn’t been going too deep into starts, but he has been impressive, and he’s going ot really step up in a major way here. The Reds send Lodolo to the mound, who looked awful in his last start giving up nine hits and four runs. He’s going to get hit early and often by the Pirates and that is going to be enough for the visiting team to come out ahead. Back the Pirates on the money line in the first five innings.