Royals vs Pirates Prediction 7/7/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Royals vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 7, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (38-53, 12-32 Away) were on a six-game winning streak as they recorded back-to-back sweeps against the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals. They haven’t allowed a single run in three wins against the Cards, but their luck turned in a series against the Mariners, which they lost without scoring in three games. In the latest 1-0 defeat, Paul Skenes pitched for 5.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing no runs on five hits with ten strikeouts and no walks. Carmen Mlodzinski took the loss.

This year, the Pirates average 3.41 runs per game (29th in the MLB) on a .231/.303/.341 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 3.61 ERA (7th) and 1.19 WHIP (3rd). Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .229 batting average, ten home runs, and 45 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Pirates is Andrew Heaney, who is 4-7 in 17 starts this season, with a 4.16 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 93.0 innings.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals (43-48, 20-24 Home) are back home from a two-series road trip, on which they split with the Seattle Mariners and defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks. In a rubber match on Sunday, the Royals secured a 4-0 victory in Phoenix. Michael Lorenzen got the win after allowing no runs on two hits with seven strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.

This season, the Royals average 3.34 runs per game (30th in the MLB) on a .243/.299/.365 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Royals’ staff has a 3.48 ERA (4th) and 1.22 WHIP (7th). Vinnie Pasquantino leads the Royals with a .271 batting average, 14 home runs, and 55 RBI this season.

Noah Cameron will take the mound for the Royals on Monday. The 25-year-old left-hander has a 2-4 record in ten starts this year with a 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 56.1 innings.

Why the Royals will beat the Pirates

• The home team has won 12 of the Pirates’ last 13 games.
• The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in 15 of their last 19 night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Royals’ last seven home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Royals’ last seven home games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Royals rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (63).
• The Royals rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (631).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (310).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (118).

Royals vs Pirates Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H duels. I am backing the Royals in this one because I prefer Noah Cameron over Andrew Heaney, and because the Pirates are not playing well on the road. Cameron registered three shutouts in his last six starts, and he shouldn’t have problems against one of the weakest offenses in the MLB. Heaney, on the other hand, was excellent in his latest start against the Cardinals, keeping them off the scoreboard for 6.2 innings, but he surrendered 14 runs in two games before. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the league, so one run could decide the tilt. I am leaning toward the hosts, so I’m backing the Royals.