Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction 9/28/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres meet Sunday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Brandon Pfaadt for the start here and Pfaadt is 13-8 with a 5.00 ERA and 142 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Pfaadt is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 28 strikeouts. The San Diego Padres did not have a starter announced at the time that this article was posted.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of San Diego on Saturday to fall to 80-81 on the year. 

Diamondbacks Hoping To Finish Back At .500

Corbin Carroll has 146 hits with 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 17 triples and 32 doubles this season. Carroll also has a team-high 32 stolen bases and Geraldo Perdomo has 26 stolen bases as well as 19 home runs and 98 RBIs with a team-high 169 hits this season. Ketel Marte’s added 26 home runs and 70 RBIs as well on the year and Lourdes Gurriel has 124 hits with 24 doubles, 19 home runs and 80 RBIs.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won 13 of their last 15 day games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four day games against the Diamondbacks following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against the Diamondbacks at Petco Park following a win.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against the Padres.
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit a home run in two of the Diamondbacks’ last three road games against NL West opponents.
• James McCann has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Geraldo Perdomo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Diamondbacks from Saturday’s game to improve to 89-72 this season.

Padres Focusing On Wild Card Series

Manny Machado has 166 hits including a team-high 33 doubles, 26 home runs, 93 RBIs and 14 stolen bases while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 156 hits with 23 home runs and 66 RBIs along with 32 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 176 hits with 29 doubles, 4 triples, 8 home runs and 61 RBIs while Jackson Merrill’s added 113 hits with 16 home runs and 63 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 29 doubles and 20 stolen bases as well this season. Gavin Sheets also has 28 doubles, 19 home runs and 70 RBIs as well this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have lost seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents following a loss.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last five games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Padres’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five day games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on San Diego in this one. I get the case to be made for Arizona if the Diamondbacks were still fighting for something. But even then it’s tough because the Diamondbacks sending out Brandon Pfaadt on the road is a tough sell considering how bad Pfaadt has been on the road as of late. I think the Padres keep the momentum going into the postseason, so give me the Padres here.