San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction 9-2-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 2nd at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 78-61 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. San Diego is coming off of a series win against Tampa Bay, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Padres split four games with the Cardinals, split four games with the Mets, and won two out of three against the Twins. San Diego is 6-4 in their last 10 games and they are tied for second in the NL West. 

The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 664 runs with a .265 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .274 with 23 home runs and 83 RBI’s for the Padres this season. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 70-68 this season and they have split their last four games. Detroit is coming off of a series win against Boston, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Tigers won two out of three against the Angels, swept the White Sox, and lost two out of three against the Cubs. Detroit is 8-2 in their last 10 games and they are fourth in the AL Central. 

The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 582 runs with a .233 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Riley Greene is batting .258 with 20 home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Tigers this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Joe Musgrove, who is 4-4 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 71.0 innings pitched this year. Musgrove has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Ty Madden, who is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. Madden allowed one earned run and four hits in five innings of work against the White Sox in his first start. 

Why the Tigers will beat the Padres

• The Tigers have won each of their last four road games.
• The Padres have lost eight of their last 10 home games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games following a road win.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in 18 of their last 20 road games after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Monday day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Padres’ last nine games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Tigers’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last four road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last three day games between the Tigers and Padres.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last five day games.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 10 day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded an RBI in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one total base in each of the Padres’ last 10 day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jackson Merrill has scored at least one run in 12 of the Padres’ last 13 day games.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in three of the Padres’ last four games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six home appearances against the Tigers after playing the previous day.
• Joe Musgrove has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in day games.
• Joe Musgrove has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Javier Baez has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Riley Greene has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL West opponents.
• Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Riley Greene has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 14 appearances against NL West opponents.
• Riley Greene has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances.
• Matt Vierling has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Zach McKinstry has recorded a Single in each of his last six road appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The San Diego Padres rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1255).
• The San Diego Padres rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
• The Detroit Tigers rank 1st in the league for triples this season (40).
• The Detroit Tigers rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.297).

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction 

Detroit comes into this game as a pretty big underdog, but they have been one of the best teams in the MLB since July 1st. The Tigers have won eight of their last ten games and they are 35-34 on the road, while the Padres are 37-32 at home. San Diego has cooled off slightly after playing great baseball in mid-August and they are now five games behind the Dodgers. Musgrove has pitched well for San Diego since coming off of the IL, while Madden pitched decently well in his debut. Detroit is playing very well right now and with their bullpen pitching lights out recently, I am going to take a shot on the Tigers to get the win here.