San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 5/10/26 MLB Picks Today

The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres meet Sunday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals will send out Kyle Leahy for the start here and Leahy is 4-3 with a 4.93 ERA and 27 strikeouts this season. This will be Leahy’s first career start against the Padres. Walker Buehler will start for the Padres here and is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Buehler is 3-0 with a 3.90 ERA and 35 strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Padres on Saturday to fall to 23-16 this season. After this series, the Cardinals will head on the road for a series against the Athletics.

Cardinals Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Entering Saturday, Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 42 hits, 8 doubles, 10 home runs and 27 RBIs while Alec Burleson has 40 hits with 10 doubles, 6 home runs and 30 RBIs. JJ Wetherholt has 34 hits with 7 home runs and 20 RBIs while Ivan Herrera has 36 hits with 10 doubles, 4 home runs and 17 RBIs. Nolan Gorman has 28 hits with 5 home runs and 22 RBIs this season. Masyn Winn’s added 33 hits with 6 doubles and 16 RBIs and Nathan Church has 27 hits with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to Saturday’s win over the Cardinals to improve to 23-17 on the year. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a set against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Padres Snap Three-Game Slide

Going into Saturday, Jackson Merrill has 33 hits with 8 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 29 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs and 19 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 34 hits with 5 doubles and 13 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 36 hits with 2 doubles, 7 home runs and 23 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 25 hits with 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 18 RBIs as well on the year.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: May 10, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 5.64
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 3-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight day games following a loss.
• The Padres have won each of their last nine Sunday games as home favorites.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven Sunday games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last 12 Sunday games as favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Leahy      Record this season: 4-3      ERA: 4.93
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Padres: 0-0

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cardinals’ last five games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last six day games against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Sunday appearances with the Padres as favorites.
• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T9th in the league in Steals (9) this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Alec Burleson has hit a home run in three of the Cardinals’ last 10 games.
• Lars Nootbaar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Cardinals as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• Ivan Herrera ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.416) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (288).
• The Padres rank 28th in the league for batting average this season (.225).
• The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (278).
• The Cardinals rank T26th in the league for triples this season (2).

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m on the over in this game. I don’t trust either one of these starting pitchers here in all honesty as I think both are fadeworthy at this point and I think that the offenses on both sides have been hot enough that both starters are in trouble early here. I’m expecting some offensive fireworks to close out the set, so give me the over here.