San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 5/7/26 MLB Picks Today

The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres meet Thursday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals will send out Matthew Liberatore for the start here and Liberatore is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. In his career, Liberatore is 0-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 4 strikeouts against the Padres. Michael King will start this one for San Diego and is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season. This will be King’s second career start against the Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-2 loss at the hands of the Brewers last time out to sit at 21-15 this season. After this series, the Cardinals will head on the road for a series against the Athletics.

Cardinals Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 40 hits, 6 doubles, 10 home runs and 27 RBIs while Alec Burleson has 37 hits with 9 doubles, 5 home runs and 29 RBIs. JJ Wetherholt has 33 hits with 7 home runs and 18 RBIs while Ivan Herrera has 32 hits with 10 doubles, 4 home runs and 17 RBIs. Nolan Gorman has 27 hits with 5 home runs and 21 RBIs this season. Masyn Winn’s added 31 hits with 6 doubles and 14 RBIs and Nathan Church has 25 hits with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 5-1 win over the San Francisco Giants last time out to sit at 22-14 this season. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a set against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Padres Win Back-To-Back Games

Jackson Merrill has 32 hits with 8 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 29 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs and 19 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 32 hits with 5 doubles and 13 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 35 hits with 2 doubles, 7 home runs and 22 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 25 hits with 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 18 RBIs as well on the year.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: May 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael King      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 2.95
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 1-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won seven of their last eight home games following a win.
• The Cardinals have lost nine of their last 11 games at Petco Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in six of their last seven games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against NL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games at Petco Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 4.50
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Padres: 0-2

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last seven games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites following a win.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last five home games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cardinals’ last three road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Michael King’s last seven appearances as a starter.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of Matthew Liberatore’s last five appearances as a starter.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Cardinals.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks 9th in the league in Steals (9) this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Alec Burleson has hit a home run in four of his last 18 appearances after playing the previous day.
• Alec Burleson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against NL West opponents.
• Jordan Walker ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.576) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 28th in the league for hits this season (278).
• The Padres rank T4th in the league for triples this season (7).
• The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (249).
• The Cardinals rank T28th in the league for triples this season (1).

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m leaning towards the Padres in this one. I just feel like Liberatore is the weak link of St. Louis’ rotation and the Padres did a great job of getting some Ws in that series against the Giants earlier in the week. It’ll be interesting to see if St. Louis can keep up this strong run of form they’ve been on, but I think the Padres can do enough here to open the series with a win. Give me San Diego here.