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St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5-17-24 Picks

Boston Red Sox (22-21) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (18-25)
May 17, 2024 8:15 pm EDT
The Line: St. Louis Cardinals -104 / Boston Red Sox -114; Over/Under: +8
(Get latest betting odds)

The Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals meet Friday in MLB action from Busch Stadium. Here’s a St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Red Sox played the Tampa Bay Rays in their early-week series. Boston took a 5-3 loss in the opener Monday, then won 5-4 in game two. On Wednesday the Sox fell 4-3 to fall behind again. In the finale Boston gave up two runs in the ninth inning and ended up falling 7-5. Cooper Criswell put up 3.2 innings as starter with three earned on four hits and two walks.

For the starter gig in the Friday matchup, the Red Sox are going with Brayan Bello. This year so far Bello is 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 27 Ks in 31.2 innings over six starts. Bello is 18-20 with a 4.21 ERA in 47 games (45 starts).

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

Over on the Cardinals’ side, they played the Los Angeles Angels in their last series. St. Louis got a pair of much-needed wins in the first two games of that set 10-5 and 7-6. In the Wednesday finale the Cardinals took a 7-2 loss. Lance Lynn gave up four earned (all in the first inning) on eight hits and two walks in 5.0 innings as starter.

Kyle Gibson will be the starting pitcher for the Cardinals on Friday. So far this year Gibson is 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA over eight starts. He’s got 40 Ks in 49.0 innings. Gibson is 106-102 with a 4.52 ERA in 308 career games (302 starts).

Red Sox vs Cardinals Injury Notes

Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock (oblique) posted 4.2 clean innings with two hits and a walk in a rehab start with Triple-A Worcester on Wednesday.

Cardinals RP Keynan Middleton (forearm) and RP Packy Naughton (elbow) each began rehab assignments on Tuesday.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

  • The underdogs have won each of the Cardinals’ last four games at Busch Stadium.
  • The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites against National League opponents.
  • The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

 

  • Nolan Arenado has hit a home run in five of the Cardinals’ last six games against the Red Sox.
  • Alec Burleson has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances with the Cardinals as underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Kyle Gibson has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
  • Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
  • Tommy Edman has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cardinals’ last seven home games against AL East opponents.
  • Willson Contreras has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
  • Kyle Gibson has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.
  • Willson Contreras has scored at least one run in each of the Cardinals’ last seven home games.
  • Nolan Arenado has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

 

  • Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last seven night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Red Sox’s last nine night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight road appearances against NL Central opponents.
  • Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Double in four of the Red Sox’s last five games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
  • Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents.
  • Connor Wong has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 13 appearances in night games.
  • Tyler O’Neill ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.554) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

 

  • The St. Louis Cardinals rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (32).
  • The St. Louis Cardinals rank 28th in the league for runs scored this season (155).
  • The Boston Red Sox rank T1st in the league for triples this season (10).
  • The Boston Red Sox rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (2.79).

St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

I might take a stab on the Cardinals here. St. Louis should be in pretty good hands with Gibson on the mound if all goes well. Over his last three starts Gibson has a combined five earned runs on 14 hits and eight walks in 18.0 innings of work. A quality start Friday would certainly bolster the Cardinals’ fortunes.

In Wednesday’s matchup the Cardinals started out with a rough first inning and couldn’t climb back into it. Between Lynn and Nick Robertson, the first two pitchers gave up seven earned and 14 hits in 6.2 innings. Gibson needs to keep things more manageable.

Andrew's Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -104

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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