Chicago Cubs (27-24) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (23-26)
May 25, 2024 7:15 pm EDT
The Line: St. Louis Cardinals -120 / Chicago Cubs +100; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 25th at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this series.
Cardinals Look to Stay Hot
The St. Louis Cardinals are 23-26 this season and they have won three games in a row. St. Louis is coming off of a series win against Baltimore, where they won all three games by scores of 6-3, 3-1, and 5-4. Prior to this series, the Cardinals won two out of three against Boston, won two out of three against the Angels, and lost three out of four against the Brewers. St. Louis has won eight of their last ten games and they are third in the NL Central behind the Brewers and Cubs.
The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 189 runs with a .231 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Nolan Arenado is batting .269 with three home runs and 22 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis is 29th in the MLB in runs scored so far this season, but they have scored at least five runs in six of their last nine games.
Cubs Searching for Momentum
The Chicago Cubs are 27-24 this year and they have lost five of their last seven games. Chicago is coming off of a series loss against Atlanta, where they lost two out of three games and allowed 15 runs in the series. Prior to that series loss, the Cubs lost three out of four against Pittsburgh, lost two out of three against Atlanta, and won two out of three against Pittsburgh. Chicago has lost nine of their last 14 games, but they remain second in the NL Central behind Milwaukee.
The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Cubs offense has scored 218 runs with a .225 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Michael Busch is batting .235 with seven home runs and 20 RBI’s for the Cubs this season. Chicago is 17th in the MLB in runs scored this season and they have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last ten games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Miles Mikolas, who is 3-5 with a 5.77 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 53.0 innings pitched this season. Mikolas has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow six earned runs and nine hits against the Mets three starts ago. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 32.2 innings pitched this season. Taillon has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but has only gone 4.0 and 4.2 innings in his last two outings.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
The Cubs have lost each of their last six Friday night games as favorites against National League opponents.
The underdogs have won five of the last six games between the Cubs and Cardinals.
The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as favorites.
The Cardinals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs.
The Cubs have lost the first inning in each of their last three games at Busch Stadium.
The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Cardinals’ last four night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
Six of the Cubs’ last seven night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last six games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Cubs and Cardinals.
Matchup/League Facts
The St. Louis Cardinals rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (189).
The St. Louis Cardinals rank 28th in the league for RBI’s this season (176).
The Chicago Cubs rank T4th in the league for triples this season (11).
The Chicago Cubs rank 4th in the league for walks this season (185).
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
These two teams had the first game in this series postponed on Friday, so each team will come into this matchup well rested. St. Louis has been underwhelming to start the season, but they have played better in the last two weeks and they are almost back to .500 at home. Chicago started the season red hot, but they have really cooled off recently. Miles Mikolas has some ugly numbers for the Cardinals this year, but he has pitched slightly better in recent outings. Jameson Taillon has been solid for the Cubs this year, but hasn’t gone five innings in his last two starts. With the Cubs struggling at the plate right now, I am going to take a shot with Mikolas at home. My St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs prediction is for the Cardinals to get the win.
