St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 5/21/26 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals meet Thursday in MLB action from Busch Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will start Braxton Ashcraft here and Ashcraft is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 56 strikeouts this season. In his career, Ashcraft is 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 12 strikeouts against the Cardinals. Dustin May will start here for the Cardinals and is 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. In his career, May is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 7 strikeouts against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to build on their 7-0 win over the Cardinals on Wednesday to improve to 25-24 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Pirates Snap Four Game Slide

Going into Wednesday, Oneil Cruz has 51 hits including 9 doubles, 10 home runs and 33 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 46 hits with 6 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 49 hits with 7 doubles and 19 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 41 hits with 10 doubles, 12 home runs and 31 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 43 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 4 home runs and 28 RBIs as well this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this game looking to shake off their loss against the Pirates on Wednesday to slide to 28-20 this season. After this series, the Cardinals will head on the road for a series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Cardinals Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight

Entering Wednesday, Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 53 hits, 10 doubles, 13 home runs and 34 RBIs while Alec Burleson has 51 hits with 11 doubles, 7 home runs and 34 RBIs. JJ Wetherholt has 42 hits with 9 home runs and 24 RBIs while Ivan Herrera has 46 hits with 12 doubles, 5 home runs and 23 RBIs. Nolan Gorman has 36 hits with 6 home runs and 25 RBIs this season. Masyn Winn’s added 39 hits with 8 doubles and 17 RBIs and Nathan Church has 35 hits with 5 home runs and 18 RBIs this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends: May 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Dustin May      Record this season: 3-4      ERA: 4.81
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-1

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six day games at Busch Stadium following a win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last eight games following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites following a win.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday day games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 3.09
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 0-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have won each of their last six games as road favorites.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in six of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games as road favorites.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cardinals’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates’ last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Pirates’ last 12 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five games against National League opponents.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Nolan Gorman has hit a home run in four of his last 12 appearances with the Cardinals as underdogs against the Pirates.
• Alec Burleson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals’ last six games against the Pirates.
• Jordan Walker ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (13) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 10+ Stolen Bases this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (349).
• The Cardinals rank T29th in the league for triples this season (2).
• The Pirates rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (431).
• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.252).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

I’m on the Cardinals in this one. I think this is a situation where both starters are in solid form and I don’t think either one factors into the decision. I think it’s going to end up being a lower-scoring game, but I trust the Cardinals’ bullpen slightly more and I trust their bats to be a lot more consistent in this spot so give me the Cards.