Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/28/26 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Friday in MLB action from Tropicana Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Casey Mize for the start here and Mize is 5-7 with a 3.44 ERA and 95 strikeouts this season. Shane McClanahan will start for the Rays and is 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 99 strikeouts this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 3-0 win over the Pirates from Friday’s matchup to sit at 72-62 this season. After this series, the Padres will take on the Cincinnati Reds in a series on the road.

Padres Snap Two-Game Slide

Jackson Merrill has 121 hits with 21 doubles, 21 home runs and 67 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 74 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 147 hits with 28 doubles, 17 home runs and 67 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 94 hits with 13 doubles, 11 home runs and 47 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 104 hits with 20 doubles, 24 home runs and 72 RBIs as well on the year.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to add on to their 3-0 win over the Detroit Tigers last time out to improve to 79-54 this season. After this series, the Rays will take on the New York Mets in a set at home.

Rays Win 3 Of Last 4

Yandy Diaz has 152 hits with 21 doubles, a triple, 19 home runs and 72 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 144 hits with 6 triples and 29 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 68 hits with 14 doubles, 4 home runs and 29 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 137 hits with 21 doubles, 16 homers and 78 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 142 hits with 20 doubles, 35 home runs and 84 RBIs.

San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: August 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane McClanahan      Record this season: 9-6      ERA: 3.10
• Home Record: 7-1
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 11 games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have lost nine of their last 10 road games following a home win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 11 night games against NL opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against AL East opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four games against NL opponents.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games at Tropicana Field against NL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize      Record this season: 5-7      ERA: 3.44
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last five games as home favorites following a win.
• The Padres have won five of their last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 13 of the Rays’ last 14 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against the Rays.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last nine home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Rays’ last seven games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Padres’ last five night games against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in five of the Rays’ last six games against NL opponents.
• Shane McClanahan has recorded a win in six of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents.
• Shane McClanahan has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances with the Rays as favorites against NL opponents.
• Junior Caminero has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 10 games.
• Yandy Diaz ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (152) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Casey Mize has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against AL opponents.
• Casey Mize has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 appearances against AL East opponents.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks 7th in the league in Hits (147) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (930).
• The Padres rank 27th in the league for hits this season (1047).
• The Padres rank T4th in the league for steals this season (130).

San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I think this game has the makings of a pitcher’s duel between Mize and McClanahan and this to me feels like a first to 3 wins kind of game. Solid starting options and two of the better bullpens in baseball as well smell like an under to me so give me the under.