Tigers vs Mariners Prediction 10/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Tigers vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, October 5^th at the T-Mobile Park in Game 2 of this ALDS Series, with the Tigers having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and were placed first in the AL West. The Mariners have a 51-31 home record and are 89-68 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 home defeat by the Tigers, and have four consecutive losses. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games.

The Mariners have a .244 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners in hits in the postseason with 3, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .600 batting average. He also leads the team both in RBI with two, and in home runs with one.

Luis Castillo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 11-8 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers finished the regular season with an 89-76 record and were placed second in the AL Central. The Tigers have a 43-42 road record and are 84-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 road win over the Mariners, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games.

The Tigers have a .247 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .413 slugging percentage. Detroit’s pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Riley Greene leads the Tigers with 6 hits in the postseason, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .375 batting average. Kerry Carpenter has a team-high 3 RBI and one home run.

Tarik Skubal (R) is the projected starter for the Tigers, and he has a 1-0 record in the postseason, with a 1.17 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: October 5, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo      Record this season: 11-8      ERA: 3.54
• Home Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Tigers: 2-3

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The underdogs have won eight of the last nine games between the Tigers and Mariners.
• The Tigers have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Tigers’ last seven games at T-Mobile Park.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Tarik Skubal      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 14-6      ERA: 2.17
• Road Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Mariners: 3-2

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won each of their last seven games following an extra innings win.
• The Mariners have lost eight of their last nine night games against the Tigers at T-Mobile Park following a loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 night games against the Tigers at T-Mobile Park following a loss.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games at T-Mobile Park following a win.
• The Mariners have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Tigers have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mariners’ last eight games following an extra innings loss have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Tigers’ last six road playoff games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last seven games as home underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Tigers’ last seven night games against American League opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Julio Rodriguez has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last four games against the Tigers.
• Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one Double in eight of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Luis Castillo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
• J.P. Crawford has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last eight games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Luis Castillo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Parker Meadows has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Tigers as road favorites against AL West opponents.
• Tarik Skubal has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zach McKinstry has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Tarik Skubal has recorded nine or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Jake Rogers has hit a home run in four of his five previous appearances with the Tigers as favorites against the Mariners.
• Tarik Skubal ranks 2nd in the league for total Strikeouts (241) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
• The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (61).
• The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (36).

Tigers vs Mariners Prediction

The Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Tigers, but the Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 visits in Seattle. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, the Tigers are coming as -135 road favorites. The Tigers drew first blood in Game 1 and broke the Mariners’ home court advantage and managed to take the lead in the series with a bullpen game. They are now putting Skubal on the mound, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he has been in excellent form lately, with just one earned run in each of his last three starts. On the flip side, Castillo has been elite at home for the Mariners, with a 2.60 home ERA, and he is also coming in excellent form, with just three earned runs across his last four starts. Both teams are weaker against the opposing starter throwing hand, so I like this game to stay low-scoring. Take the under 6 runs.