Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction 9/26/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 26^th at the Fenway Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have an 87-72 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 46-32 home record and are 76-79 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-6 road defeat by the Blue Jays, that ended their two-game winning streak. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .422 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 161 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .267 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 96, adding a team-high 25 home runs.

Kyle Harrison (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-1 record, 3.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers have an 86-73 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL Central. The Tigers have a 40-38 road record and are 83-68 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road victory over the Guardians, that ended their 8-game losing streak. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games.

The Tigers have a .247 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .416 slugging percentage. Detroit’s pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Riley Greene leads the Tigers with 155 hits, adding team-highs both in RBI, with 111, and in home runs, with 36. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .262 batting average.

Casey Mize (R) is the projected starter for the Tigers, and he has a 14-6 record, 3.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Harrison      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 3.58
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Tigers: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last nine Friday night games against the Tigers.
• The Tigers have lost each of their last six road games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last six home games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against AL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize      Record this season: 14-6      ERA: 3.91
• Road Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The underdogs have won eight of the Tigers’ last nine games.
• The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 14 games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Tigers’ last nine games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Friday games as home favorites.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Tigers have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.
• The Tigers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last eight games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Tigers’ last six road games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Tigers and Red Sox.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Tigers’ last six games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games against the Tigers.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three games as favorites.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous home appearances against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Casey Mize has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against AL East opponents.
• Casey Mize has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Tigers as underdogs.
• Parker Meadows has recorded at least one hit in each of his 15 previous appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Kerry Carpenter has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Casey Mize ranks T7th in the league for Wins (14) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (317).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1390).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (60).
• The Tigers rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (36).

Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction

The Tigers have won their last five meetings against the Red Sox, but both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Boston. Over is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -125 home favorites. The Tigers have dug themselves a hole and are now fighting with the Guardians for the first place of the AL Central, while the Red Sox are fighting to hold an AL Wild Card spot, so this matchup has huge implications. I don’t trust Mize on the road for a struggling Detroit squad, and Boston has a superior bullpen. I expect the hosts to get the job done in this one, so take the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline.