Toronto Blue Jays vs NY Yankees Prediction 10/4/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Saturday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Luis Gil here and Gil was 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 41 strikeouts in the regular season. The Toronto Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman for the start here and Gausman is 10-11 with a 3.59 ERA and 189 strikeouts in the regular season.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into the ALDS after besting the Boston Red Sox in game three of their AL Wild Card series by a final score of 4-0 last time out.

Yankees Looking To Draw First Blood On The Road

Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 179 hits including 53 home runs, 114 RBIs, 30 doubles and a .331 batting average along with 12 stolen bases. Anthony Volpe’s also had 32 doubles with 18 stolen bases, 19 home runs and 72 RBIs while Jasson Dominguez has added 18 doubles of his own. Paul Goldschmidt has 134 hits with 31 doubles and a .274 batting average while Volpe also has 150 strikeouts so far this season. Ben Rice also has 119 hits with 28 doubles, 26 home runs and 65 RBIs while Cody Bellinger has 29 homers with 98 RBIs and Austin Wells has 21 home runs and 71 RBIs with Bellinger logging 25 doubles and Wells chipping in 22 doubles. Trent Grisham also has 34 home runs and 74 RBIs and Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 31 home runs and 80 RBIs so far this season.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Yankees’ last seven games at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last seven playoff games.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Volpe has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances against the Blue Jays after not playing the previous day.
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in four of the Yankees’ last five road playoff games.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last eight games.
• Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.331) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into the ALDS as the 1-seed in the American League and AL East champions, finishing with a 94-68 mark in the regular season, marking their first AL East title since 2015.

Blue Jays Looking To Make Noise In Return To Playoffs

George Springer has 154 hits and Bo Bichette has 181 hits with Springer adding 32 home runs, a triple, 27 doubles and 84 RBIs while Bichette has 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 69 hits with 11 doubles and 7 home runs and 35 RBIs this season along with 12 stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 23 homers, 34 doubles and 84 RBIs while Springer also has a .309 batting average and 111 strikeouts up to this point in the year. Addison Barger’s chipped in 32 doubles with 21 home runs and 74 RBIs and Ernie Clement’s added 35 doubles as part of his 151 hits this season.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven games following a home win.
• The Yankees have lost each of their last five road games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last five games.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last two games.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in day games.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last seven day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on the Blue Jays here. This is an interesting matchup in the rest vs. rust debate, but I still think that the Blue Jays edge comes in the form of home field. This was a strong edge that the Jays had in Toronto all year long, and while the Yankees came on strong in the head-to-head late in the year, I can’t forget about the struggles New York had for a lot of the early part of the season. Luis Gil also has had control issues and this is a Toronto lineup that takes good, disciplined at bats at the plate and I think Toronto can take game one here. Give me the Jays.