Twins vs Guardians Prediction 9/19/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins meet Friday in MLB action at Target Field. Here’s a Twins vs Guardians Prediction. This article will include a Twins vs Guardians Pick.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 81-71 on the year and play the Tigers and Rangers next. The Cleveland Guardians are batting .226 on the season, have a .297 OBP, and a .372 slugging percentage. The Cleveland Guardians pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Steven Kwan leads the Cleveland Guardians with 159 hits and 49 RBI, while Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo have combined for 261 hits and 147 RBI.

Parker Messick gets the ball for the Cleveland Guardians, and he is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 22 strikeouts this season. This will be Messick’s first career game against the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 66-86 on the year and play the Rangers and Phillies next. The Minnesota Twins are batting .240 on the season, have a .314 OBP, and a .400 slugging percentage. The Minnesota Twins pitching staff has a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Byron Buxton leads the Minnesota Twins with 122 hits and 76 RBI while Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee have combined for 232 hits and 122 RBI.

Pablo Lopez gets the ball for the Minnesota Twins, and he is 5-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 71 strikeouts this season. Lopez is 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his career against the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: September 19, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez      Record this season: 5-4      ERA: 2.64
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Guardians: 1-3

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The home team has won six of the last eight games between the Guardians and Twins.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last three games against the Guardians.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Target Field.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Parker Messick      Record this season: 3-0      ERA: 1.84
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Twins: –

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last nine games as underdogs against the Twins following a win.
• The Twins have lost each of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 16 games between the Guardians and Twins.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins’ last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Twins’ last five games as favorites against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Pablo Lopez has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven home appearances.
• James Outman has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against AL opponents.
• Byron Buxton has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
• Trevor Larnach has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins’ last 11 home games against AL opponents.
• Byron Buxton ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.551) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games against the Twins.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded a Double in four of the Guardians’ last five games at Target Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against the Twins.
• Jose Ramirez ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (39) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (437).
• The Twins rank 27th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.260).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1125).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.226).

Twins vs Guardians Prediction

The Guardians have lost one game since September 5 and have played themselves in the playoff race with a week left. The Twins have underachieved all year and have nothing to play for at this point. Lopez is worth a look given he’s an all-star when right, but he has just 11 innings under his belt since June. Messick has been fantastic through 29.1 rookie innings, posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and 22 strikeouts with just 4 walks. I have to ride the hot hand with the Guardians.