Twins vs Phillies Prediction 9/27/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 27^th at the Citizens Bank Park in the second game of this series, with the Phillies having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 96-65 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 54-25 home record, and are 72-78 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-1 home victory over the Twins, and have three straight wins.

The Phillies have a .260 batting average this season, .329 OBP and .434 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 179 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 132 RBI and a team-high 56 home runs.

Ranger Suarez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 12-7 record, 3.12 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 69-91 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL Central. The Twins have a 31-48 road record and are 73-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-3 road defeat by the Phillies. Their last seven games have gone under the total.

The Twins have a .238 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Byron Buxton leads the Twins with 127 hits, adding team-highs both in RBI, with 82, and in home runs, with 34. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .263 batting average.

Mick Abel (R) is the projected starter for the Twins, and he has a 2-4 record, 7.36 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 27, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez      Record this season: 12-7      ERA: 3.12
• Home Record: 6-2
• Last 5 against Twins: 0-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 12 night games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have lost each of their last 11 Saturday games.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in five of their last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mick Abel      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 7.36
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Phillies: –

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won each of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost eight of their last 12 games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last five games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Phillies’ last seven games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 14 of the Phillies’ last 15 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Twins’ last 10 games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in four of the Phillies’ last six home games.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded 10+ strikeouts in three of his last four home appearances.
• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his 13 previous appearances against the Twins.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (56) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in four of his last five road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Christian Vazquez has recorded two hits in four of his five previous road appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Byron Buxton ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.547) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1417).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Twins rank 25th in the league for RBIs this season (637).
• The Twins rank 25th in the league for ERA this season (4.61).

Twins vs Phillies Prediction

The Twins are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Phillies, and both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Philly.

In this Twins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -200 home favorites. Suarez has been terrible in his last two start, but he remains an elite pitcher for the Phillies. On the flip side, Abel takes the mound for the Twins, and he has been torched in his last two starts, with 11 earned runs in just 4.2 innings pitched, so I expect the Phillies bats to have a field day against him. Philly also has both a better bullpen and a better offense, so I expect them to take care of business at home in this one.