Twins vs Royals Prediction 9/7/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Royals Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 7^th at the Kauffman Stadium in the third game of this series, with the Royals having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Kansas City Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royals have a 73-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL Central. The Royals have a 40-34 home record and are 60-81 in over/under. They are coming off a 11-2 home victory over the Twins, and have three consecutive wins. Under is 7-1 in their last 8 games and are playing the Phillies and the Guardians next.

The Royals have a .245 batting average this season, .306 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Royals with 160 hits, while Maikel Garcia is the team’s best hitter with a .294 batting average. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in RBI, with 98, and a team-high 29 home runs.

Michael Lorenzen (R) is the projected starter for the Royals, and he has a 5-9 record, 4.54 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 62-80 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL Central. The Twins have a 27-44 road record and are 67-66 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-11 road defeat by the Royals, and are 1-7 in their last 8 games. Over is 13-3 in their last 16 games and are playing the Angels and the Diamondbacks next.

The Twins have a .239 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.58 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Trevor Larnach leads the Twins with 116 hits, while Byron Buxton adds team-highs both in RBI, with 73, and in home runs, with 29. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .270 batting average.

Bailey Ober (R) is the projected starter for the Twins, and he has a 4-7 record, 5.23 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Betting Trends: September 7, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael Lorenzen      Record this season: 5-9      ERA: 4.54
• Home Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Twins: 1-0

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Twins have lost each of their last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have won 24 of their last 26 home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against AL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober      Record this season: 4-7      ERA: 5.23
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Royals: 0-2

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Twins’ last six games.
• The Royals have lost four of their last five day games following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Twins’ last six games.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games.
• The Twins have won the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals’ last 10 games as favorites against the Twins have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Twelve of the Twins’ last 13 games as underdogs against the Royals have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Royals’ last seven games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Twins’ last six road games.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit a home run in three of the Royals’ last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against the Twins.
• Michael Lorenzen has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances.
• Maikel Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals’ last 11 home games against AL Central opponents.
• Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 3rd in the league in Hits (160) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Larnach has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Trevor Larnach has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.555) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Royals rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (960).
• The Royals rank 29th in the league for walks this season (375).
• The Twins rank 4th in the league for walks allowed this season (400).
• The Twins rank 26th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.259).

Twins vs Royals Prediction

The Royals are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Twins, and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Under is 9-3 in their last 12 meetings.

In this Twins vs Royals Prediction, the Royals are coming as -135 home favorites. Lorenzen takes the mound for the Royals, and he has been better at home, with a 3.60 home ERA. He has been in good form, with a 4-1 record and 3.08 ERA in his last 5 starts, and in his only start against the Twins this season, he gave up only one run. On the flip side, Ober has been terrible on the road, with a 6.02 road ERA, and he has been in poor form lately, having 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Take the Kansas City Royals to continue to roll over a struggling Minnesota squad at home in this one.