Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction 7-25-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 25th at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.

Nationals are Trying to Avoid the Sweep 

The Washington Nationals are 47-55 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Washington has lost the first two games in this series and they have scored a total of three runs in the two losses. Prior to this series, the Nationals swept the Reds in three games, won two out of three against the Brewers, and lost all three against the Mets. Washington is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the NL East. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 4.20 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 423 runs with a .239 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .262 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has scored at least five runs in five of their last eight games. 

Padres are Heating Back Up 

The San Diego Padres are 54-50 this year and they have won four games in a row. San Diego has won games one and two in this series by scores of 4-0 and 12-3. Prior to this series, the Padres won two out of three against the Guardians, lost two out of three against the Braves, and lost both games against the Mariners. San Diego is 5-7 in their last 12 games and they are second in the NL West.

The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 473 runs with a .262 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .264 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI’s for the Padres this season. San Diego has allowed a total of four runs in their last four games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Patrick Corbin, who is 2-9 with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 111.0 innings pitched this year. Corbin has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five outings. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Dylan Cease, who is 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 122.0 innings pitched this season. Cease has allowed zero earned runs in two straight starts and three of his last five outings. 

Why the Padres will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost each of their last seven games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won seven of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line each of their last four home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four games as favorites against the Nationals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five day games against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games as road favorites.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in seven of his last 17 appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• Jesse Winker has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances with the Nationals as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jesse Winker has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances with the Nationals as home underdogs.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one Single in each of the Nationals’ last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Patrick Corbin has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one total base in each of the Nationals’ last 19 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 19 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jurickson Profar has hit a home run in five of the Padres’ last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres’ last nine games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded two or more hits in each of his last seven appearances at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Padres as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of his eight previous appearances at Nationals Park.
• Manny Machado has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances at Nationals Park.
• Dylan Cease has recorded eight or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Prediction 

San Diego comes into this matchup looking for the series sweep and their fifth straight win, and they have played very well over their last four games. The Padres are 28-22 on the road, while Washington is just 23-26 at home. The Nationals have been a very up and down team so far this season, but they have not shown up for this series. Washington is going with Corbin, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. San Diego is going with Cease, who has had some issues, but has been very good in his last two outings. My Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres prediction is for the Padres to win by at least two runs.