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Yankees vs Mets Prediction 9/11/26 MLB Picks Today

NY Mets (68-78) vs. NY Yankees (84-62)
September 11, 2026 7:05 pm EDT
The Line: NY Yankees -142 / NY Mets 117; Over/Under: 8
(Get latest betting odds)

The New York Mets and New York Yankees meet Friday in MLB action at Yankee Stadium. Here’s a Yankees vs Mets Prediction. This article will include a Yankees vs Mets Pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 68-78 on the year and play the Orioles and Phillies next. The New York Mets are batting .238 on the season, have a .309 OBP, and have a .394 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 151 hits and 73 RBI, while Carson Benge and Marcus Semien have combined for 241 hits and 100 RBI.

Nolan McLean gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 179 strikeouts this season. This will be McLean’s first career game against the New York Yankees.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 84-62 on the year and play the Twins and Diamondbacks next. The New York Yankees are batting .234 on the season and have a .312 OBP and a .409 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees’ pitching staff has a 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Ben Rice leads the New York Yankees with 134 hits and 88 RBI, while Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have combined for 225 hits and 119 RBI.

Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 70 strikeouts this season. Rodon is 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 27 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.

Why the New York Yankees will win

  • The Yankees have won each of their last five home games.
  • The Mets have lost each of their last five road games against AL East opponents following a win.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a win.
  • The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
  • The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home night games.
  • The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games at Yankee Stadium.

Why the New York Mets will win

  • The Mets have won each of their last four games as underdogs.
  • The Yankees have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Mets following a home win.
  • The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against the Mets following a home win.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games.
  • The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games.
  • The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.
  • The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four road games.

Total Runs Facts

  • Seven of the Mets’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Yankees’ last five games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last eight Friday games.
  • There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

  • Ben Rice has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Carlos Rodon has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Yankees as home favorites against NL opponents.
  • Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Luis Garcia ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.553) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five night games.
  • Carson Benge has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 road games against AL opponents.
  • Nolan McLean has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.20).
  • The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (536).
  • The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (189).
  • The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.309).

Yankees vs Mets Prediction

The Yankees are going to be favored because they’re the Yankees, and it doesn’t hurt to see Rodon on the mound. I get it. We’ve also made a killing blindly fading the Mets all season. However, we’re getting plus money with McLean on the mound. McLean has been strong through 161.2 innings with a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. McLean has allowed 9 earned runs in his last 36 innings. In 76 innings on the road, McLean has a 2.49 ERA and a .177 allowed batting average. I’ll take a shot with the plus money in this Subway Series opener.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: NY Mets 117

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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