Yankees vs Orioles Prediction 9/28/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles meet on Sunday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. Here’s a Yankees vs Orioles prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Yankees vs Orioles pick. 

Another Win for the Yankees

The AL East is going down to the wire, but the Yankees were able to pick up another victory on Saturday. The pitching was dominant, and the Yankees scored six runs on the way to the victory. Cam Schlitter was on the mound and he went seven innings giving up two hits and zero runs. He had nine strikeouts and one walk. Aaron Judge continued to make his care for the MVP hitting a home run and driving in three RBIs. The offense needs to get out to a fast start to put the pressure on again. 

The Yankees are averaging 5.25 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.24 runs per game. The offense is ranked 1st in baseball while the pitching is ranked 13th. Aaron Judge has hit 53 home runs and driven in 114 RBIs. Getting the start for the Yankees will be Luis Gil who sits with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 3.29. Against the Chicago White Sox in his last start he went six innings giving up four hits and two runs. 

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last eight games at Yankee Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have lost 12 of their last 13 games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against American League opponents.

Another Loss for the Orioles

It was another loss for the Orioles on Saturday and it has been the same story over and over all season. This has been a season to forget for the Orioles and it’s probably best that this is the last game of the season for them. On Saturday, the offense managed only one run, and if they want a chance in this game, the offense has to get out to a faster start. Coby Mayo hit a solo home run and that was the only offense. 

The Orioles are averaging 4.19 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.88 runs per game. The offense is ranked 24th in baseball while the pitching is ranked 25th. This team needs some big changes this offseason but it has some of the building pieces, but it’s not a finished job for sure. Kyle Bradish will get the start for the Orioles and he sits with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 2.25. In his last start against the Yankees he went six innings giving up two hits and one run. Over his last three starts, he has given up only three runs total. 

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won 12 of their last 18 games as underdogs against the Yankees following a loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in 13 of their last 16 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in 19 of their last 25 home games against AL East opponents following a win.

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

The Orioles pitching wasn’t great on Saturday, but Sunday is going to be a much different story. Bradish has been dominant his last couple of starts and even his last start against the Yankees he locked down. For Luis GIl, he has also been strong, and in his last start he gave up four hits and two runs. I really don’t trust the Orioles offense. They only scored one run on Saturday and they aren’t going to finish with more than a couple of runs here. Both offenses are going to struggle for quality at bats, and the under will end up cashing.