Yankees vs Padres Prediction 5/7/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Yankees vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, May 7th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 20-16 this season, and they have split the first two games in this series by scores of 3-4 and 12-3. In their game two win, New York trailed 3-2 in the seventh, but they erupted for 10 runs in the seventh for the win. The Yankees recorded 10 hits in the game and they committed one error, while they were led by Wells, who went 2-4 with one home run and five RBIs in the win. New York started Schmidt, who allowed seven hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Cruz picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Yankees lost two out of three against the Rays and two out of three against the Orioles. New York has lost three of their last four games, and they are currently first in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.62 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .207 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 202 runs with a .262 batting average and a .346 on-base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 12 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Trent Grisham has added nine home runs and 18 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Max Fried, who is 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 44.2 innings pitched this season. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 23-12 this year after they lost game two by a score of 12-3 on Tuesday. San Diego led 2-0 and 3-2 in the game, but their pitching fell apart in the seventh for the loss. The Padres recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Tatis and Heyward, who both had one RBI in the loss. San Diego started King, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Morejon allowed three hits and four earned runs over 0.1 innings for the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Padres won all three against the Pirates and both games against the Giants. San Diego has won six of their last seven games, and they are currently second in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.01 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a .213 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 140 runs with a .259 batting average and a .327 on-base percentage this season. Fernando Tatis has led San Diego with eight home runs and 19 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added four home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Dylan Cease, who is 1-2 with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over 33.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Padres

• The Padres have lost five of their last six games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have won four of their last five night games following a home win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against American League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Padres will beat the Yankees

• The Padres have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have lost each of their last seven Wednesday games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Yankees’ last nine games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Yankees’ last 14 games as home favorites against National League opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in four of the Yankees’ last six games against the Padres.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six home appearances against the Padres.
• Aaron Judge has recorded at least one hit in 21 of his last 22 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances.
• DJ LeMahieu has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Yankees as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Paul Goldschmidt has scored at least one run in each of the Yankees’ last six night games.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against the Yankees after playing the previous day.
• Manny Machado has scored at least one run in eight of the Padres’ last nine games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL opponents.
• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.

Yankees vs Padres Prediction 

New York desperately needed a win on Tuesday night, and they were able to have a huge seventh inning for the victory. The Yankees are 12-8 at home this year, while the Padres are 9-8 on the road. San Diego has played very well over the last few series, and they are starting Cease, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings, but hasn’t made it past five innings in his last three. New York is going with Fried, who has allowed zero earned runs in his last three starts (20.2 IP). Both pitchers are executing at a very high level right now, and I like the under in this contest.