Yankees vs Phillies Prediction 7/25/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Yankees vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 25th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 56-46 this year after they lost two out of three against Toronto by scores of 1-4, 5-4, and 4-8. In their game three loss, New York led 1-0 in the second and they tied the game at four in the sixth, but allowed the last four runs in the game for the defeat. The Yankees recorded five hits and they committed four errors in the game, while they were led by Judge, who went 1-4 with one home and two RBIs in the loss. New York started Fried, who allowed six hits and four earned runs over 5.1 innings for the loss, while Effross allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Yankees won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Cubs before that. New York has won three of their last five games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .226 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 530 runs with a .254 batting average and a .333 on base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 37 home runs and 84 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 18 home runs and 57 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Will Warren, who is 6-5 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 99.0 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 58-44 this season after they won two out of three against Boston by scores of 3-2, 4-1, and 8-9. In their game three loss, Philadelphia led 5-0 in the fourth inning, but they needed a run to tie the game in the eighth, before losing in extra innings. The Phillies recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Schwarber, who went 2-5 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Philadelphia started Luzardo, who allowed two hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Johnson picked up the loss in extras. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Angels and two out of three against the Padres. Philadelphia has won three of their last five games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 469 runs with a .254 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 34 home runs and 78 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 13 home runs and 55 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 3-5 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 62.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Phillies

• The Yankees have won seven of their last eight games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last five road games against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Phillies at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight Friday night games as favorites.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday games as home favorites.

Why the Phillies will beat the Yankees

• The Phillies have won each of their last seven games following a home loss.
• The Yankees have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Yankees’ last four games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six night games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five night games between the Phillies and Yankees.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Jazz Chisholm has hit two home runs in each of his last two appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Trent Grisham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Yankees as home favorites against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in six of the Phillies’ last seven night games.
• Taijuan Walker has recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Yankees vs Phillies Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series trying to make up ground in their respective divisions and they have two very similar records. The Phillies are just 25-25 on the road this year, while the Yankees are 30-19 at home. New York has had some pitching issues lately and they are starting Warren, who has allowed five earned runs or more in two of his last four starts. The Phillies are going with Walker, who is not a reliable option on the mound. Take the over here.