Yankees vs Rays Prediction 10/7/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Yankees vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, October 7th at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB playoff matchup. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are down 0-2 in this series after they lost the first two games by scores of 0-1 and 2-5. In game two, New York tied the game at one in the fourth inning, but didn’t score again until the eighth in the loss. The Yankees recorded four hits and they committed four errors in the game, while they were led by Rice, who went 2-3 with two home runs and two RBIs. Schlittler allowed six hits and two earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Blackburn threw an inning in relief. Prior to this series, New York won two games against the Red Sox in the wild card round and split two games with the Orioles to end the regular season. 

This season, New York had a 3.24 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .224 opponent batting average, while they scored 739 runs with a .235 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Ben Rice led the Yankees with 41 home runs and 97 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger added 17 home runs and 73 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Max Fried, who is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP over 6.0 innings pitched this postseason. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are up 2-0 in the series after they won game two by a score of 5-2 on Monday night. Tampa Bay blew an early lead, but they scored four runs in the fifth inning to pull away with the win. The Rays recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Palacios, who went 1-4 with two RBIs. Peralta allowed three hits and one earned run over 4.2 innings, while Booser picked up the win and Baker got the save. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay had a bye in the wild card round and won two out of three against the Phillies to end the regular season. 

This season, Tampa Bay had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while they scored 736 runs with a .258 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda led the Rays with 22 home runs and 92 RBIs, while Junior Caminero added 42 home runs and 101 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 180.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last 14 home games following a loss.
• The Rays have lost each of their last six Wednesday games at Yankee Stadium.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six home games following a loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games following a home win.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Wednesday night games.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Yankees have lost three of their last four playoff games as favorites following a road loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Wednesday playoff games.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road night games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine road night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four games as underdogs against the Yankees have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Yankees’ last 10 home games against AL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Rays’ last four games as underdogs.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• George Lombard Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last two home games against the Rays.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in four of his five previous home appearances against the Rays.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous home appearances against the Rays.
• George Lombard Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Ben Rice ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.534) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Nick Martinez has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against AL opponents.
• Victor Mesa Jr. has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances with the Rays as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Nick Martinez has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances against AL opponents.
• Chandler Simpson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Rays as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (46) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.23).
• The Yankees rank 29th in the league for hits this season (1250).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1145).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (409).

Yankees vs Rays Prediction

New York comes into this matchup facing elimination and they have scored just two runs in the first two games. The Yankees were 46-34 at home this year, while the Rays were 43-38 on the road. Tampa Bay has allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last five games and took advantage of very sloppy play by the Yankees in game two. The Rays are starting Martinez, who has allowed 4, 2, 2, 0, and 3 earned runs in his last four outings, while Fried has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Take the Yankees -1 here.