Mike Rodriguez vs. Ed Herman – 9/12/20 UFC Vegas 10 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Ed Herman and Mike Rodriguez fight Saturday during UFC Vegas 10 at the UFC APEX.

Ed Herman enters this fight with a 25-14-1 record and has won 52 percent of his fights by submission. Herman has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a November win over Khadis Ibragimov. Herman is averaging 3.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Herman is averaging 2.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Herman is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 163 where he landed 121 total strikes and 57 percent of his significant strikes. Herman has produced back-to-back victories and looks to win three straight fights for the first time since 2011-12. Herman comes from a wrestling background and is a black belt in BJJ. Herman is known for his ground game and has 13 career submissions, but he’s also tough as nails and is willing to trade in the clinch while thiteming bombs the other way. We saw it in his last fight, Herman can get nasty on the feet and land some powerful punches and knees. This will be Herman’s seventh career fight in Las Vegas.

Mike Rodriguez enters this fight with a 11-4-1 record and has won 82 percent of his fights by knockout. Rodriguez has split his last six fights and is coming off an August win over Marcin Prachnio. Rodriguez is averaging 4.59 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Rodriguez is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Rodriguez is coming off a first round knockout at UFC Vegas 7 where he landed 21 total strikes. Each of Rodriguez’s last six victories have ended in knockout and all of those victories came in the first round. Rodriguez now looks for back-to-back wins for the first time in three years. Rodriguez is a lengthy fighter with an 82.5-inch reach and is most comfortable on the feet. Rodriguez mixes in leg kicks well, is cautious defensively and works well behind his jab. Rodriguez has power when he wants to push the pace a bit and has produced nine knockout victories in his career. All 11 of Rodriguez’s victories have been finishes, which includes a pair of submissions in CES MMA. Rodriguez is a blue belt in BJJ, so his ground game isn’t completely nonexistent. This will be Rodriguez’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Rodriguez is the better, more accurate fighter on the feet, has the reach advantage and has the edge with him already fighting in the small cage in Vegas. Herman hasn’t fought in nearly a year and he’s been scheduled for a lot of opponents lately that didn’t pan out, so preparing for several names over these last few months can get a bit frustrating. There’s a lot to like about Rodriguez in this fight.

I like Rodriguez to win this fight, and I’ll take him by knockout to lower the price.