UFC Vegas 12: Alexander Hernandez vs. Chris Gruetzemacher Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Chris Gruetzemacher and Alexander Hernandez fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 12 at the UFC APEX.

Chris Gruetzemacher enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Gruetzemacher has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off an April (2018) win over Joe Lauzon. Gruetzemacher is averaging 7.12 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Gruetzemacher is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Gruetzemacher is coming off a second round knockout at UFC 223, a showing that earned performance of the night. Gruetzemacher is now 3-2 under the UFC banner, but he’s been out of the octagon for a year and a half due to multiple injuries, which includes a torn ACL. Gruetzemacher was forced to back out of two previous scheduled fights since his last bout. Gruetzemacher comes from a wrestling background, but he does some of his best work standing up where he mixes in leg kicks, shows solid head movement and has true one punch knockout power. Five of Gruetzemacher’s last seven victories have been knockouts and he has some vicious performances due to his strikes. On the flip side, all three of Gruetzemacher’s losses have been submissions. This will be Gruetzemacher’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Alexander Hernandez enters this fight with a 11-3 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by decision. Hernandez has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a May loss to Drew Dober. Hernandez is averaging 3.17 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Hernandez is averaging 2.15 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Hernandez is coming off a second round knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 171 where he ate 65 total strikes. Hernandez has now been knocked out in two of his last three fights and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Hernandez comes from a wrestling background and has seen eight of his 14 fights end in submissions or decisions. Hernandez has an impressive gas tank and appears to be more comfortable in the clinch or on the canvas. A bitemn belt in BJJ, Hernandez also has one-punch knockout potential and does a good job of closing the distance when on his feet. However, recent results are starting to raise an eyebitem about Hernandez’s chin and he has some doubters to silence in this fight. This will be Hernandez’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

There’s a lot of reasons to be down on Gruetzemacher, as he’s been out of the octagon for two and a half years and has battled several injuries. You have no idea what to expect from Gruetzemacher and I’m sure that plays into this line. Hernandez is the young, flashy fighter who is considered somebody who can climb up the division and make some noise. However, Gruetzemacher is a talented fighter who does serious damage on the feet and if he’s anything close to what he was before he got injured, he’s more than a live dog in this fight. We’ve seen Hernandez gets stopped twice in his last three bouts and Gruetzemacher is a brawler who should not be taken lightly.

If you’re looking for a big underdog on this fight card, Gruetzemacher is probably worth a shot.