UFC Vegas 16: Jamahal Hill vs. Ovince Saint Preux Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Ovince Saint Preux and Jamahal Hill fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 16 at the UFC APEX.

Ovince Saint Preux enters this fight with a 25-14 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. Saint Preux has split his last 12 fights and is coming off a September win over Alonzo Menifield. Saint Preux is averaging 2.64 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Saint Preux is averaging 1.23 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Saint Preux is coming off a second round knockout at UFC Vegas 9 that earned performance of the night, a bout he landed 33 total strikes. Saint Preux will now fight for the third time this year and looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2017. Saint Preux is one of the more proven fighters in the light heavyweight division and is extremely dangerous standing up, with knockout power in both hands and some devastating leg kicks. Saint Preux isn’t the fighter you can rush in on due to his striking ability and above-average takedown defense, and he has one of the best ground and pound if the fight does go to the canvas. Saint Preux has enough wrestling to survive on the ground, but he’s most effective on his feet where he can unleash his power and use his unique combination of size and athleticism. This will be Saint Preux’s sixth career fight in Las Vegas.

Jamahal Hill enters this fight with a 7-0 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by knockout. This will be Hill’s third fight this year and is coming off a May no contest against Klidson Abreu. Hill is averaging 7.90 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Hill is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Hill is coming off a no contest at UFC on ESPN 9, a fight that included just 31 total strikes. Hill won his previous two UFC fights and hasn’t lost since making his pro debut in September of 2017. Hill is a tricky southpaw striker with a 79-inch reach and has been very accurate with his strikes and has three knockout victories. Hill could improve his takedown defense, but he’s got good stamina that’s helped him win four career decisions and he has enough scrambling ability to survive the ground. Hill is a late bloomer at 29 years old, but he’s a scrappy fighter who likes his chances standing up.

You’re never sure what you’re going to get from OSP, as he sometimes comes out flat and doesn’t let his hands go, other times he reminds you of what’s made him so successful in the past. Hill has passed every test up to this point and I guess there’s reason to make him the favorite. However, we’re getting plus money with the more proven fighter in Saint Preux, who can not only bang with Hill but has the grappling edge. 

Hard not to like OSP and the plus money.