UFC Vegas 18: Mike Rodriguez vs. Danilo Marques Picks, Odds and Predictions

Mike Rodriguez and Danilo Marques are fighting at UFC Vegas 18 on Saturday, February 6, 2021 on ESPN+. 

In this light heavyweight (205lbs) bout, we have Mike Rodriguez vs. Danilo Marques. Rodriguez is fighting out of Boston, Massachusetts. He is entering this bout as a -235 favorite. He lost his last bout to Ed Herman via Kimura in the third round. Before his last loss, he won against Marcin Prachnio. He has a professional MMA record of 11-5-0 and has 9 wins by KO/TKO (82%), 3 submissions (18%), and 0 decisions (0%). 

Marques is fighting out of Sao Paulo, Brazil. He is entering this fight as a +195 underdog.. Marques is currently on a three fight winning streak. He has notable wins over Khadis Ibragimov, Cleiton Caetano and Marck Polimeno. He has a professional MMA record of 10-4-0 and has 0 wins via KO/TKO (0%), 8 submissions (80%), and 2 decisions (20%).  

In Rodriguez’s last fight, he lost in a devastating fashion. Rodriguez stunned Herman with a body shot, but Herman told the referee he was hit with a groin strike. The referee separated the fighters, which allowed Herman to use the full five minutes to recover from the groin shot. Even though Rodriguez was dominating Herman the entire fight, Herman was able to recover after the “groin shot” and was able to submit Rodriguez in the last minute of the third round. On the other hand, Marques is currently 1-0-0 in the UFC. This is going to be a big step up in competition for Marques. Rodriguez is dangerous on the feet and has a significant striking and reach advantage. There is no value betting on Rodriguez as a -235 favorite. The value is in the prop bet. For these reasons, my pick is…