UFC Vegas 19: Darrick Minner vs. Charles Rosa Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Charles Rosa and Darrick Minner fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 19 at the UFC APEX.

Charles Rosa enters this fight with a 13-4 record and has won 62 percent of his fights by submission. Rosa has split his last eight fights and is coming off a June win over Kevin Aguilar. Rosa is averaging 3.41 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Rosa is averaging 2.01 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Rosa is coming off a split decision win at UFC Vegas 2 where he landed 69 total strikes and 39 percent of his significant strikes. Rosa is now 4-4 under the UFC banner and looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2014. Rosa comes from a deep boxing background and started early in karate, so he’s at his best on his feet where he can unleash his striking and powerful leg kicks. Rosa is a black belt in BJJ and six of his last nine victories have come by submission. Rosa has become quite a balanced fighter who is comfortable anywhere the fight goes, and it’s important he starts stringing some wins together if he hopes to make a dent in this division given he’s now 34 years old. This will be Rosa’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

Darrick Minner enters this fight with a 25-11 record and has won 88 percent of his fights by submission. Minner has won five of his last eight fights and is coming off a September win over T.J. Laramie. Minner is averaging 3.61 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 65 percent. Minner is averaging 1.50 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Minner is coming off a first round submission win at UFC Fight Night 178 where he didn’t allow his opponent to land a single strike. Minner is now 1-2 under the UFC banner and each of his last 13 victories have ended with submissions. Minner is an experienced fighter who works quickly and has seen 11 of his last 13 victories end in the first round. Minner is a grappler at heart who wants a fight on the canvas and has seen 22 of his 25 carer victories end in submission. Unfortunately, Minner has been submitted in eight of his 11 career losses, so win or lose, you have an idea of how his fights are going to end. On the feet, Minner can be a little too wild and sloppy, so it’s key he gets the fight where he wants it quickly or things could end up bad for him standing up against quality opponents. Only three of Minner’s 36 fights have ended in a decision.

This is going to be a chess match of a fight where both fighters are most comfortable on the ground and have a deep submission game. And while Minner finishes fights at a higher clip, it’s Rosa who has more balance to his attack and is sharper in most areas. Minner can be a little sloppy at times and it has a lot to do with him getting finished in 10 of his 11 career losses. Rosa should win back to back fights for the fist time in seven years.

I’ll lay the juice with Rosa.