UFC 259: Drew Dober vs Islam Makhachev Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober fight Saturday in UFC 259 at the UFC APEX

Islam Makhachev enters this fight with a 18-1 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by decision. Makhachev has won each of his last six fights and is coming off a September (2019) win over Davi Ramos. Makhachev is averaging 2.10 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Makhachev is averaging 3.40 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 68 percent. Makhachev is coming off a decision victory at UFC 242 where he landed 88 total strikes and 45 percent of his significant strikes. Due to COVID-19 and a staph infection, Makhachev has been outside of the octagon for about a year and a half. Makhachev is 7-1 under the UFC banner. Makhachev has a background in sanshou, judo and sambo, so he’s highly effective in close range, is relentless with his takedown attempts and almost always has the edge on the canvas. Makhachev grew up with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and they often train together, so it’s no surprise he has a similar fighting style and wants to drag his opponent into deep waters. However, Makhachev has landed 44 precent of his strikes standing up and he does have three career knockouts, so don’t sleep on his striking ability. This will be Makhachev’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

Drew Dober enters this fight with a 23-9 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by knockout. Dober has won six of his last seven fights and is coming off a May win over Alexander Hernandez. Dober is averaging 4.66 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Dober is averaging 0.88 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 17 percent. Dober is coming off a second round knockout at UFC Fight Night 171, and he’s now earned performance of the night honors in back-to-back fights. Dober has produced knockouts in five of his last seven wins. Dober is a southpaw who has a deep background in Muay Thai and has wrestled since an early age, so he’s highly effective in the clinch and is prepared for a lengthy, drawn out fight that tests both fighters conditioning. Ten of Dober’s last 15 victories have ended in either a decision or a submission. However, Dober and his power striking can’t be overlooked, as he’s on a tear with the knockouts. This will be Dober’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

Makhachev is going to be the obvious favorite given his style is proven to be successful and his BJJ is about as good as it gets. Makhachev is tough to bet against until somebody can crack the code. However, Dober has the edge on the feet and his power striking that he’s shown lately gives him a punchers chance. And while Dober has been submitted a lot in his career, he does have a deep wrestling background and is a purple belt in BJJ. There’s a path for Dober to win this fight, making him a live dog.

I’ll take a shot with Dober and the big plus money.