UFC 259: Israel Adesanya vs. Jan Blachowicz Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Jan Blachowicz and Israel Adesanya fight Saturday in UFC 259 at the UFC APEX.

Jan Blachowicz enters this fight with a 27-8 record and has won 37 percent of his fights by decision. Blachowicz has won eight of his last nine fights and is coming off a September win over Dominick Reyes. Blachowicz is averaging 3.49 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Blachowicz is averaging 1.10 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Blachowicz is coming off a second round knockout at UFC 253 that earned performance of the night honors. In the victory, Blachowicz lands 41 total strikes and 46 percent of his significant strikes. Blachowicz has now won four straight fights overall and five of his last seven victories have earned performance bonuses. A black belt in BJJ, Blachowicz is a scrappy Polish fighter who is willing to push the pace and trade on the feet if needed. Blachowicz can take a punch and keep coming forward, and he has decent defense on the feet despite his aggressive style. Blachowicz is also a solid takedown artist who has a strong ground and pound and nine career submission victories. Blachowicz also has above average cardio that’s allowed him to be effective through all rounds and has helped him win 10 of his 15 career decisions. This will be Blachowicz’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Israel Adesanya enters this fight with a 20-0 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout. This will be Adesanya’s 10th fight since 2018, and he’s coming off a September win over Paulo Costa. Adesanya is averaging 4.10 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Adesanya is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Adesanya is coming off a second round knockout at UFC 253 where he landed 55 total strikes and 65 percent of his significant strikes. Adesanya has produced knockouts in two of his last three fights and has seen performance bonuses in six of his last seven fights. Adesanya is simply an athletic freak who comes from a kickboxing and boxing background and is as crafty and creative as they come. Adesanya is long, rangy with an 80-inch reach, mixes in his leg kicks well and has an unorthodox stance that throws off his opponent. It’s hard to predict what Adesanya is going to do next, and when you throw in his striking power with the unpredictability, you get a dangerous fighter who has shown little weakness up to this point. However, Adesanya will have to prove at some point that he can survive the canvas and tap into that wrestling bag, but his takedown defense is an impressive 86 percent. This will be Adesanya’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Blachowicz is a dangerous opponent, as he has a massive build, can take a shot and his one forward style with his toughness could have Adesanya on his heels if he isn’t careful. With that said, Adesanya has given us no reason to bet against him up to this point and he just knocked out a power striker who many thought could give him issues. Adesanya is the truth standing up and until a weakness opens up, you can’t really bet against him.

I’ll lay the juice with Adesanya here and probably throw him in a play or two.