UFC 260: Vicente Luque vs Tyron Woodley Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Tyron Woodley and Vicente Luque fight Saturday in UFC 260 at the UFC APEX.

Tyron Woodley enters this fight with a 19-6-1 record and has won 37 percent of his fights by knockout. Woodley has split his last six fights and is coming off a September loss to Colby Covington. Woodley is averaging 2.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Woodley is averaging 1.08 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Woodley is coming off a fifth round loss at UFC Vegas 11 where he landed 67 total strikes and produced one takedown. Woodley wasn’t all that competitive in the fight and suffered a rib injury in the loss. Woodley hasn’t looked like himself in quite some time, has lost three straight bouts and hasn’t won a fight since UFC 228. When in good form, Woodley has a nasty standup game with extreme power in his hands and violent leg kicks that have dropped many opponents. A black belt in BJJ and a D1 wrestling background, Woodley is quite effective when he shoots and has an effective ground and pound if a fight goes to the canvas. While Woodley is a fun watch, it’s his IQ that gives him an edge over most fighters in this division. Woodley rarely puts himself in danger, is smart defensively and has some of the best reaction speed you’ll find in the octagon. However, Woodley has been beat up for much of his last 15 rounds. This will be Woodley’s ninth career fight in Las Vegas.

Vicente Luque enters this fight with a 19-7-1 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by knockout. Luque has won eight of his last nine fights and is coming off an August win over Randy Brown. Luque is averaging 5.72 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Luque is averaging 0.68 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Luque is coming off a second round knockout at UFC Vegas 5 where he landed 76 total strikes and 52 percent of his significant strikes. Luque has produced knockouts in six of his last seven wins and has earned performance bonuses in three of his last four fights. Luque is a standup striker who doesn’t stop letting his hands go and has true knockout power as we’re seeing more and more these days. Luque has some of the cleanest boxing technique in the sport and attacks the head at a high percentage, spending little time working the body or mixing in leg kicks. Luque is simply coming in to put guys to sleep and he has a high success rate when he gets the style of fight he wants. Luque does have six submission wins and is a purple belt in Luta Livre, so he can hold his own on the ground, but he’s most comfortable where he can let his hands go and it’s led to some downright brawls and nasty stoppages. This will be Luque’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.

Woodley has been beaten up in his last three fights, looking like a shell of himself and now he’s going up against a power puncher and scary striker in Luque. I’m not sure how anybody can confidently back Woodley with the way he’s looked in his last three fights. It wouldn’t be surprising if Woodley is on his last leg as a professional fighter, as he hasn’t looked good at all.

Give me Luque, and I’ll take him by knockout to shave down the price.