UFC Vegas 28: Augusto Sakai vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Picks, Odds, Predictions

Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 28 at the UFC Apex.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik enters this fight with a 11-2 record and has won 91 percent of his fights by knockout. Rozenstruik has split his last four fights and he’s coming off a February loss to Ciryl Gane. Rozenstruik is averaging 3.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Rozenstruik is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Rozenstruik is coming off a decision loss at UFC Vegas 20 where he landed 49 total strikes while his opponent landed 129 total strikes. Rozenstruik is now 1-2 in his last three fights after starting his career with a 10-0 record. Rozenstruik is an established fighter at 33 years old who comes from a boxing and kickboxing background, and he has obvious clear KO power in either hand. Rozenstruik is most comfortable standing up, as he was highly successful at kickboxing with a 76-8 record, and he throws these hooks that can knock his opponents head off. Rozenstruik still hasn’t shown much ability on the ground and he was taken down twice in his last fight, but he has an impressive winning percentage when he’s able to fight his fight. This will be Rozenstruik’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Augusto Sakai enters this fight with a 15-2-1 record and has won 73 percent of his fights by knockout. Sakai has won six of his last seven fights and is coming off a September loss to Alistair Overeem. Sakai is averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Sakai is averaging 0.15 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Sakai is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Vegas 9, a fight that was back and forth for five rounds and would have been an interesting decision if it made it to that point. It was the first time Sakai has been finished in his career and he now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time. Sakai is a 30-year-old Brazilian who comes from a boxing background and has seen all 18 of his fights either end in knockout or decision. Sakai has clear power in his hands, and he’s effective in both the clinch and with his ground and pound. Sakai will throw haymakers when he gets his opponent against the cage and he’s not afraid to mix in some legs or knees. Sakai can be a bit sloppy with his attack at times and his hand speed isn’t great. We also need to see Sakai tap into his ground game if he’s going to be trusted against some of these bigger names. This will be Sakai’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

This should be a fun fight between two guys who want to stand and bang and haven’t shown much desire to get on the canvas. There’s going to be a lot of strikes, a lot of power shots and somebody could get knocked out. With that said, I have to give the edge to Rozenstruik. He’s the bigger fighter in this matchup, he has the quicker hands and his kicks could play a factor at some point. We can also not ignore Sakai is coming off his first time being knocked out and it’s always tricky backing a guy in these situations, especially when going up against another power striker. 

Give me Rozenstruik and the cheap price.