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UFC 263: Marvin Vettori vs Israel Adesanya Picks, Odds, Predictions

Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
June 12, 2021 11:45 pm EDT
The Line: Marvin Vettori +225 / Israel Adesanya -265
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Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori fight Saturday in UFC 263 at the Gila River Arena. Adesanya enters this fight with a 20-1 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout. Vettori enters this fight with a 17-4-1 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by submission.

Adesanya has won five of his last six fights, and he’s coming off a March loss to Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya is averaging 3.95 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. He is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. 

Adesanya is coming off his first career loss at UFC 259 where he landed 99 total strikes and ate 184 total strikes. His debut at light heavyweight was a struggle to say the least and he was also taken down three times.

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When in good form, Adesanya is simply an athletic freak who comes from a kickboxing and boxing background and is as crafty and creative as they come. He is long, rangy with an 80-inch reach, mixes in his leg kicks well and has an unorthodox stance that throws off his opponent. It’s hard to predict what Adesanya is going to do next, making him a very dangerous fighter. 

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However, it’s going to be interesting to see how Adesanya responds to adversity for the first time. This will be Adesanya’s second career fight in Arizona.

Vettori has won his last five fights and is coming off an April win over Kevin Holland. He is averaging 4.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Vettori is averaging 2.22 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. 

He is coming off a decision win at UFC Vegas 23 where he landed 152 total strikes and 37 percent of his significant strikes. Vettori also produced 11 takedowns in the victory. He now looks for his third victory since December.

Vettori is highly skilled on his feet where he throws violent combinations, but he’s also quite an athlete for his size and will mix in knees as well. Vettori is also highly effective in the clinch and has good scrambling skills that allow him to survive on the canvas. Three of Vettori’s last four submission victories have come via the guillotine choke. Four of Vettori’s five victories during this streak have been decisions. This will be Vettori’s second career fight in Arizona.

This is a rematch of UFC on FOX 29, where Adesanya won by split decision. Adesanya landed 67 total strikes and was more accurate with his significant strikes. Vettori landed 60 total strikes but landed just 29 percent of his significant strikes.

That fight was so competitive and Vettori is in such good form, you can make a case for the plus money. However, Adesanya is such a smart fighter and so detailed, I can’t pick against him in a rematch. Adesanya has film to go off of and can make adjustments and guys with that sort of IQ should have an easier time in a rematch. Obviously you can say similar things about Vettori, but Adesanya is an easier tougher fade coming off his first loss.

Give me Adesanya, and I’ll side with him in a decision. 

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Israel Adesanya In Decision
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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