MMA

UFC 263: Brad Riddell vs Drew Dober Picks, Odds, Predictions

Drew Dober vs Brad Riddell
June 12, 2021 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Drew Dober -145 / Brad Riddell +125
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Drew Dober and Brad Riddell fight Saturday in UFC 263 at the Gila River Arena. Dober enters this fight with a 23-10 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by knockout. Riddell enters this fight with a 9-1 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by knockout.

Dober has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a March loss to Islam Makhachev. He is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Dober is averaging 0.80 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 17 percent. 

Dober is coming off a submission loss at UFC 259 where he landed just 14 total strikes. He was dominated in the losing effort and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2013-14. 

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Dober is a southpaw who has a deep background in Muay Thai and has wrestled since an early age, so he’s highly effective in the clinch and is prepared for a lengthy, drawn out fight that tests both fighters conditioning. Ten of Dober’s last 15 victories have ended in either a decision or a submission.  

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He also has knockout striking power and should be eager to land more shots than he did his last time out. This will be Dober’s second career fight in Arizona.

Riddell has won each of his last six fights and he’s coming off a September win over Alex da Silva Coelho. He is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Riddell is averaging one takedown with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. 

Riddell is coming off a decision win at UFC 253 where he landed 86 total strikes and produced one takedown. Riddell is now 3-0 under the UFC banner and all three of those wins have come by decision. 

He is a purple belt in BJJ and comes from a kickboxing background where he does some of his best work mixing in kicks to the body and landed seven leg kicks in his last bout. Riddell is a striker at heart and wants a fight on the feet, but he has been rather successful with his takedown attempts and has improved his ability on the ground. 

He has five career knockout wins and he’s never lost a decision. This will be Riddell’s first career fight in the United States.

Riddell is worth a look in the plus money role and is actually the more trustworthy striker with his accuracy. However, it’s Dober who has a clear edge in the clinch or on the ground. This is a fight Dober should be able to control and grind out. It also can’t be overlooked that Dober is a tricky southpaw, which could give Riddell issues standing up.

Either way, I like Dober and the reasonable price.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Drew Dober -145
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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