UFC Fight Night 191: Darren Till vs Derek Brunson Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Derek Brunson and Darren Till fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 191 at the UFC Apex. Brunson enters this fight with a 22-7 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by knockout. Till enters this fight with a 18-3-1 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by knockout.

Brunson has won four straight fights and is coming off a March win over Kevin Holland. Brunson is averaging 3.46 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Brunson is averaging 3.11 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Brunson is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 21 where he landed 226 total strikes and produced six takedowns. Brunson has now won seven of his nine career decisions and looks for a third win in the last 13 months. Brunson is an explosive fighter with obvious knockout power and has a tricky southpaw stance with a boxing background. Brunson was also a Division II wrestler and is a brown belt in BJJ, so he knows his way around the canvas and has become much more confident with his takedown attempts. He has 10 combined takedowns in his last two fights. Brunson wants to be the aggressor who controls the pace and he has to be riding high on confidence given this recent stretch. This will be Brunson’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Till has split his last six fights and is coming off a July (2020) loss to Robert Whittaker. Till is averaging 2.27 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Till is averaging 0.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Till is coming off a decision loss at UFC on ESPN 14 where he landed 50 total strikes but ate 100 total strikes. Till has lost three of his last four fights and will fight for the first time in over a year, something he hasn’t done since his 2015 bout against Nicolas Dalby. Till is a balanced fighter who relies on Muay Thai, accurate stand up striking and has an effective ground and pound. Till has above-average power in both hands, an effective uppercut and can drop anybody in this division at any moment. Till is also a purple belt in Luta Livre, so he’s a proven grappler as well and has won six of his seven career decisions. This will be Till’s first career fight in Nevada.

Till is usually popular with the betting community and he’s a talented, young fighter who has always had hype around him. However, Till has also been out of the octagon for more than a year and has lost three of his last four bouts. Brunson has had a consistent schedule, is on quite a run and is the bigger fighter of the two with an advantage if this fight went to the canvas. You can also argue Brunson is the more accurate striker with possibly more pop in his hands. This line is rather surprising if we’re being honest.

Give me Brunson for the upset.