UFC Fight Night 191: Sergey Spivak vs Tom Aspinall Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Tom Aspinall and Sergey Spivak fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 191 at the UFC Apex. Aspinall enters this fight with a 10-2 record and has won 80 percent of his fights by knockout. Spivak enters this fight with a 13-2 record and has won 46 percent of his fights by submission. 

Aspinall has won six straight fights and is coming off a February win over Andrei Arlovski. Aspinall is averaging 7.43 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Aspinall is averaging 3.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Aspinall is coming off a submission win at UFC Fight Night 185 that earned performance of the night. Aspinall is now 3-0 under the UFC banner and has earned performance bonuses in two of those bouts. Aspinall comes from a boxing background and obviously has great knockout power in either hand, as seven of his last eight wins have come by knockout. All eight of Aspinall’s knockout victories have been decided in the first round and all 10 wins have been finishes. Aspinall has never seen a decision in his career. Aspinall does a good job of keeping his hands up, and he usually is the one walking down his opponent. Aspinall hasn’t shown a lot of ground work up to this point, but he does have a good ground and pound and will throw in a few leg kicks as well. Aspinall produced submission victories in his first two pro fights and one of those was a heel hook over six years ago. This will be Aspinall’s second career fight in the United States.

Spivak has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a July win over Aleksei Oleinik. He is averaging 3.85 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Spivak is averaging 2.83 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 63 percent. Spivak is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 25 where he landed 112 total strikes and 52 percent of his significant strikes. Spivak has won three straight fights and has a chance to win his third fight this year alone. Spivak is an aggressive fighter standing up, as he throws bombs and looks to close the distance. He gets in the clinch, throws heavy knees and he’s even better on the canvas. Spivak has a strong ground and pound and does have six career submission victories. Spivak has never been submitted in his career. Polar Bear is a balanced heavyweight who has finished 11 of his 13 victories. At just 26 years old, Spivak has the ability to shoot up the rankings and make some serious noise in this division. This will be Spivak’s third career fight in Nevada.

Aspinall is a finishing machine who has been a nightmare through three UFC fights. You can understand why this line is what it is. With that said, we’re getting plus money with Spivak, who has impressive boxing ability and knockout power in his own right and has terrific submission ability if this bout went to the ground. Spivak has also been on a roll this year, as he has a chance to win three fights and make a case for fighter of the year. Spivak is far from a pushover and you can find value in the underdog role with him here.

I’ll back the momentum and side with Spivak.