UFC 268: Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang fight Saturday in UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. Namajunas enters this fight with a 10-4 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by submission. Zhang enters this fight with a 21-2 record and has won 48 percent of her fights by knockout.

Namajunas has won five of her last six fights and is coming off an April win over Zhang Weili. Namajunas is averaging 4.13 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Namajunas is averaging 1.89 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Namajunas is coming off a first round knockout via head kick, a showing that earned performance of the night at UFC 261. Namajunas has won two straight fights since her scary loss at UFC 237, and she hopes to defend her belt successfully for the first time since UFC 223. Namajunas is an aggressive pressure fighter who likes to stay busy by working the jab and mixing in kicks. Namajunas now has two knockout victories under her belt, and she’s proven to be somebody who can hold her own standing up and has a very technical approach to her attack where she picks her spots well. Namajunas is also proven on the canvas and has creative submission holds. Namajunas has used the rear-naked choke four times to finish fights and seems to be a bit more comfortable on the ground. This will be Namajunas’ third career fight in New York.

Zhang has won 10 of her last 11 fights, and she’s coming off an April loss to Rose Namajunas. Zhang is averaging 6.36 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Zhang is averaging 1.24 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 23 percent. Zhang watched her 21-fight winning come to an end, a bout where she landed seven of her 11 total strike attempts. Zhang previously didn’t lose since her pro debut back in 2013, and she now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in her career. Zhang has a complete fighting style, as she has a background in kickboxing and is just as effective with her knees. Zhang’s constant pressure, aggressive approach in her stand-up is where she unleashes combinations and a relentless gas tank. Zhang has a killer instinct that you don’t see all the time on the woman’s side, and 17 of her 21 victories have been finishes. This will be Zhang’s first career fight in New York.

This should be a hell of a rematch, and hopefully it lasts longer than the first bout. Namajunas is more than capable of defending her belt, and she’s the bigger fighter of the two who has some advantages standing up. However, I went into the first fight thinking Zhang is the better of the two overall with her kickboxing background, power striking and proven ground ability, and the first fight didn’t provide much of a sample size to change my mind.

I’m still taking Zhang in this fight.