UFC Vegas 44: Jose Aldo vs Rob Font Picks, Predictions, Odds

Rob Font and Jose Aldo fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 44 at the UFC Apex. Font enters this fight with a 19-4 record and has won 42 percent of his fights by knockout. Aldo enters this fight with a 30-7 record and has won 57 percent of his fights by knockout.

Font has won four straight fights and is coming off a Mary win over Cody Garbrandt. Font is averaging 5.58 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Font is averaging 1.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Font is coming off a decision win at UFC Vegas 27 where he landed 183 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Font has a chance to win three fights since last December, and he hasn’t lost a bout since UFC 226. Font is a quality stand-up striker who has one punch knockout potential, but three of his last four wins have come by decision. Font uses his legs well and is effective in the clinch, where he’ll mix in a hard knee and has gotten a finish or two in that position. Font has four submission victories, so his ground game is probably a little underrated, but he’s at his best standing up and doesn’t have a ton of success with his takedown attempts. This will be Font’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Aldo has split his last 10 fights and is coming off an August win over Pedro Munhoz. Aldo is averaging 3.63 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Aldo is averaging 0.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Aldo is coming off a decision win at UFC 265 where he landed 114 total strikes and 51 percent of his significant strikes. Aldo now looks for three straight victories for the first time since 2013-14. Aldo is a black belt in BJJ and has a background in Muay Thai. He is most known for his power striking and his leg kicks, and three of his last eight victories have come by knockout. Aldo is also one of the more well conditioned fighters that’s allowed him to win 12 of his 14 career decisions, and he has a takedown defense percentage of 91 percent. Aldo may no longer be in his prime now that he’s 35 years old and with a lot of damage taken over his career, but he’s still an all-time great and that experience makes him dangerous. This will be Aldo’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Font may be the younger, fresher fighter with a slight reach advantage, better form, and he’s much busier on the feet where this fight will likely stay. However, at what point do we stop doubting the aging vets who continue to turn back the clock. Right when we’re ready to write somebody off, they go on a mini run. We saw it with Anthony Smith, Glover Teixeira, and now we’re seeing it with Aldo in back-to-back wins. Aldo and the plus money is attractive in this spot. I’ll take it.