UFC Vegas 45: Belal Muhammad vs Stephen Thompson Picks, Predictions, Odds

Stephen Thompson and Belal Muhammad fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 45 at the UFC Apex. Thompson enters this fight with a 16-5-1 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Muhammad enters this fight with a 19-3 record and has won 74 percent of his fights by decision.

Thompson has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a July loss to Gilbert Burns. Thompson is averaging 4.06 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Thompson is averaging 0.30 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Thompson is coming off a decision loss at UFC 264 where he landed 59 total strikes and 35 percent of his significant strikes. Thompson has now split his last six decisions overall. Thompson is a well conditioned striker who is very polished defensively, almost never taking clean shots from his opponent, and has only been finished once in his career. Thompson has a deep kickboxing background where he produced a 58-0 record, and he follows up those kicks with clean shots to the head. A black belt in BJJ, Thompson is simply one of the more solid welterweights in the sport and is somebody who doesn’t beat himself when he steps into the octagon. Thompson has won eight of his 12 career decisions, and his fundamentals are on point, giving him a chance to beat anybody you put in front of him. This will be Thompson’s 10th career fight in Nevada.

Muhammad has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a June win over Demian Maia. He is averaging 4.61 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Muhammad is averaging 1.80 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Muhammad is coming off a win at UFC 263 where he landed 92 total strikes and 35 percent of his significant strikes. Muhammad hasn’t lost a fight since his bout against UFC Fight Night 143. Muhammad has proven to be a balanced fighter who does some of his best work on his feet. He also has a terrific gas tank that’s helped him win 14 of his 16 career decisions. Muhammad usually always gets the fight where he wants and it, and he does a great job of controlling the pace and not allowing his opponent to dictate much. A purple belt in BJJ, Muhammad may not overwhelm his opponent, but he knows how to win and doesn’t allow his opponent to get comfortable. This will be Muhammad’s six career fight in Nevada.

Thompson is going to get the benefit of the doubt here because of his name and experience, but he’s been inconsistent as of late and has proven to be beatable. Muhammad can trade with him on the feet, and he has a clear edge on the ground with his BJJ background and his high level takedown defense. This line is rather surprising.

Give me Muhammad in the plus money role.