MMA

UFC Fight Night 208: Jordan Leavitt vs Paddy Pimblett Picks, Predictions, Odds

Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt
July 23, 2022 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: Jordan Leavitt +219 / Paddy Pimblett -259
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Paddy Pimblett and Jordan Leavitt fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 208 at The O2 Arena. Pimblett enters this fight with a 18-3 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by submission. Leavitt enters this fight with a 10-1 record and has won 60 percent of his fights by submission.

Pimblett has won each of his last 4 fights and is coming off a March win over Rodrigo Vargas. Pimblett is averaging 6.07 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Pimblett is averaging 1.82 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Pimblett is coming off a submission win at UFC Fight Night 204 that earned performance of the night honors. In the victory, Pimblett landed 5 total strikes and produced a takedown. Pimblett is now 2-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost overall since September 2018. An intriguing fighter at 27 years old, Pimblett is a black belt in BJJ and has 8 career submission victories. Pimblett is aggressive with his takedowns and wears on his opponent in the clinch. Pimblett also has an underrated striking game, and his chin is top quality. Pimblett has never been knocked out in his career. Pimblett is quickly becoming a star and has a chance to eventually push for a title shot. This will be Pimblett’s 20th career fight in England, his birth country.

Leavitt has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is coming off an April win over Trey Ogden. Leavitt is averaging 2.49 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 61 percent. Leavitt is averaging 1.80 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 26 percent. Leavitt is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 34 where he landed 124 total strikes and 65 percent of his significant strikes. Leavitt is now 4-1 under the UFC banner. Leavitt comes from a wrestling background, and it’s helped him produce 6 career submission victories. Leavitt’s first pro fight ended in a Peruvian Necktie, and he has 2 submissions on the UFC level, including an inverted triangle choke against Matt Sayles. Leavitt has shown to be accurate with his striking, but he doesn’t land a ton on his feet. Leavitt is most comfortable on the ground, where he can fight for position and eventually end things on his terms. This will be Leavitt’s first career fight in England.

This line isn’t showing much respect to Leavitt and his ground game, but you can understand it, as Pimblett has become a star and the betting public is going to pounce on it. While I acknowledge Leavitt’s ground game and give him a slightly better chance here, it’s the fact Pimblett is the better all around fighter and has a key edge on the feet as well. I’m not sure if there’s anything Leavitt does that Pimblett can’t do better.

Give me Pimblett inside distance to shave down the steep ML price.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Paddy Pimblett Inside Distance

Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.
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