UFC 277: Sergei Pavlovich vs Derrick Lewis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich fight Saturday in UFC 277 at the American Airlines Center. Lewis enters this fight with a 26-9 record and has won 81 percent of his fights by knockout. Pavlovich enters this fight with a 15-1 record and has won 80 percent of his fights by knockout.

Lewis has won 5 of his last 7 fights and is coming off a February loss to Tai Tuivasa. Lewis is averaging 2.56 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.60 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Lewis is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 271 where he landed 31 total strikes and ate 35 total strikes. It’s the sixth time Lewis has been knocked out in his career, and he now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time. At now 37 years old, there are no surprises with Lewis, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 19 of his last 23 wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that turns a fight. While he’s improved his takedown ability over the years and has a blue belt in BJJ, Lewis is stand and bang to its core and is letting his hands go. Lewis and his 13 knockouts is a UFC record, which tells you all you need to know. This will be Lewis’ 13th career fight in Texas, his residence.

Pavlovich has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is coming off a March win over Shamil Abdurakhimov. Pavlovich is averaging 6.08 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Pavlovich is averaging 0.00 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Pavlovich is coming off a knockout win at UFC Fight Night 204 that earned performance of the night. In the victory, Pavlovich landed 22 total strikes and ate 17 total strikes. Pavlovich has won his last 3 fights, and they’ve all been knockout victories. Pavlovich is a massive Russian who stands at 6’3”, has an 84-inch reach and a southpaw stance. He has an aggressive style where he pushes the pace, throws tons of combinations and will mix in a kick or flying knee as well. Pavlovich is entertaining due to his pressure attack, and it’s helped him produce 12 career knockouts. At only 30 years old, Pavlovich has a chance to do some damage in this division if he keeps it up. This will be Pavlovich’s first career fight in the United States.

I can understand why Pavlovich is favored here, as his cardio is better, he’s younger and his size is just downright scary. As good as Lewis is, he didn’t look great his last time out, and his lack of wind and age catch up to him at times. There’s a path here where Pavlovich just destroys The Black Beast. With all that said, I’ve been a fan of Lewis for years and have a hard time turning him down in the underdog spot. Also, this fight is in Texas, where Lewis has the crowd behind him and is 10-2 for his career. This will be Pavlovich’s first fight in the US, so maybe some issues adjusting. Who knows. 

I’m going to grab the plus money with Lewis.