UFC Fight Night 209: Tai Tuivasa vs Ciryl Gane Picks, Predictions, Odds

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa
September 3, 2022 5:15 pm EDT
The Line: Tai Tuivasa +400 / Ciryl Gane -600
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 209 at the Accor Arena. Gane enters this fight with a 10-1 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by knockout. Tuivasa enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 93 percent of his fights by knockout.

Gane has won 5 of his last 6 fights, and he’s coming off a January loss to Francis Ngannou. Gane is averaging 4.83 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Gane is averaging 0.69 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 22 percent. Gane is coming off a decision loss at UFC 270 where he landed 79 total strikes and produced 1 takedown. With it being his first career loss and being for the Heavyweight Championship, it will be interesting to see how Gane responds from adversity. Gane is 7-1 under the UFC banner, and this will be his 12th fight since turning pro 4 years ago. Gane comes from a Muay Thai background that includes a 7-0 pro record, and his combination of athleticism, power, and size makes him an intriguing fighter in this division. Gane works well behind his jab, throws powerful overhands and can be tough to pick up at times due to an awkward style. Gane does some of his best work in the clinch, and his cardio is impressive for his size. Gane still has to prove he can wrestle and grapple, and the fact he was taken down 4 times in his last bout is concerning. Gane has to become a more balanced fighter to take the next step. This will be Gane’s first career fight in France, his birth country.

Tuivasa has won his last 5 fights, and he’s coming off a February win over Derrick Lewis. Tuivasa is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Tuivasa is averaging 0.00 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Tuivasa is coming off a second round knockout at UFC 271 where he landed 35 total strikes and 66 percent of his significant strikes. Tuivasa has now produced knockouts in each of his last 5 fights, and he’s earned performance of the night honors in each of his last 3 fights. Tuivasa is quite an athlete for a guy his size, and he’s a very powerful striker with heavy hands and violent elbows. Tuivasa throws in a leg kick sometimes, and he closes the distance well and is effective in the clinch. With a boxing and kickboxing background, Tuivasa has produced knockouts in 13 of his 14 career wins, and most of those knockouts have come via punches. Tuivasa is a crazy Australian who wants to stand and bang for the most part. This will be Tuivasa’s first career fight in France.

Cane is going to be the favorite for obvious reasons, as he’s the bigger fighter with a 6-inch reach advantage, and he’s the more accurate striker. Cane is also fighting in his home country for the first time and doesn’t have the issues with the takedowns this time. With that said, we’re getting a powerful striker and a guy who is on a tear with 5 straight victories. This line is disrespectful toward Tuivasa if we’re being honest, and it makes the Aussie worth a shot with the big plus money.

Give me Tuivasa based on the value.  

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Tai Tuivasa +400

Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.
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