Minnesota Timberwolves (28-19) vs. Dallas Mavericks (19-27)
January 28, 2026 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Dallas Mavericks +6.5; Over/Under: 231.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. Here’s a Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction. This article will include a Mavericks vs Timberwolves Pick.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves have really been struggling lately as they were on a five-game losing streak before they snapped out of it with a 108-83 win over the Warriors on Monday. Julius Randle led the team with 18 points and seven rebounds, Bones Hyland added 17 points with seven rebounds and five assists off the bench while Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid each scored 15 points. As a team, the Timberwolves shot 46 percent from the field and 14 of 35 from the 3-point line as they jumped all over the Warriors from the start and dominated the first half by 53-38. They just didn’t take their foot off the gas to come away with the much-needed blowout win in front of their home fans.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks have been in pretty good form lately as they’ve won five of their last seven games overall and their last game got postponed so they haven’t played since their 116-110 loss to the Lakers on Saturday. Max Christie led the team with 24 points, Naji Marshall added 21 points with 11 rebounds while Brandon Williams chipped in with 20 points off the bench. As a team, the Mavericks shot 41 percent from the field and 10 of 29 from the 3-point line as they dominated the third quarter by 35-14 to turn a 13-point halftime deficit into a 15-point lead. However, that still wasn’t enough to get the win as they leaked 37 points in the fourth quarter to allow the Lakers off the hook in the end.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
- The Timberwolves have lost nine of their last 10 games at American Airlines Center when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against Northwest Division opponents.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won 20 of their last 21 games as road favorites against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last four games on the first leg of a back-to-back.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games on the first leg of a back-to-back against Western Conference opponents.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last four road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Mavericks’ last nine games against Northwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Timberwolves’ last four road games following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- P.J. Washington is one of only three qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
- Klay Thompson ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.8) this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (71.3%) this season.
- Julius Randle is one of only three players in the league to have recorded 12+ assists without a turnover in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point percentage this season (33.1%).
- The Mavericks rank 30th in the league for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (93.8).
- The Timberwolves have used only six different starting fives this season – fewest in the league.
- The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (3.9).
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction
The Timberwolves could be shorthanded for this one as Leonard Miller and Anthony Edwards are both listed as questionable, while the Mavericks have ruled out Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Moussa Cisse with Cooper Flagg listed as questionable. The Timberwolves were really in a slump before they smashed the Warriors on Monday which would’ve given them plenty of confidence as they did it without the services of Edwards who could be out once again. The Mavericks will be sweating on the availability of Flagg, but they’ve been playing well lately despite the injuries, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled off the upset here. The Timberwolves should be good enough to get the job done on the road, but this line just seems a bit too high for this matchup as the Mavericks have been playing better than their record suggests. Give me the Mavericks with the points in what should be a close contest.
