Oklahoma City Thunder (63-28) vs. Dallas Mavericks (57-36)
May 18, 2024 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Dallas Mavericks -3.5; Over/Under: +210.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be hoping to force a series decider against the Dallas Mavericks in NBA Game 6 at the American Airlines Center on Saturday. Here’s a Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder are now battling just to stay alive after getting routed by the Mavericks in a 104-92 loss in Game 5 on Wednesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 30 points, six rebounds and eight assists, Chet Holmgren added 13 points while Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort each scored 12 points. As a team, the Thunder shot just 42 percent from the field and 10 of 40 from the 3-point line, but to their credit they were able to keep it close despite falling behind by 10 points going into halftime. Josh Giddey had a decent game of 11 points in 12 minutes off the bench but Isaiah Joe scored just six points on two of nine shooting.
Dallas Mavericks
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks are now in control after taking down the Thunder in a crucial win in Game 5 to set up the chance to finish off the series at home. Luka Doncic led the team with a triple-double of 31 points with 10 rebounds and 11 assists, Derrick Jones Jr added 19 points while Dereck Lively chipped in with 11 points and 10 rebounds off the bench. As a team, the Mavericks shot 52 percent from the field and 14 of 35 from the 3-point line as they took control with a 30-point push in the second quarter to jump out in front by double digits and they played excellent defense down the stretch to hold off the Thunder in the second half. Kyrie Irving had a quiet game as he finished with just 12 points and four assists on five of 11 shooting in 39 minutes of action.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Thunder have lost each of their last seven road games following a home loss.
- The Mavericks have won seven of their last eight home games against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Mavericks after losing as favorites.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- Daniel Gafford ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (72.5%) this season.
- Kyrie Irving ranks 7th amongst qualified players for FT% (90.5%) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for steals per game (2.0) this season.
- Chet Holmgren rank 3rd amongst qualified players for steals + blocks per game (3.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.0).
- The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (39.5).
- The Thunder rank T1st in the league for steals per game this season (8.5).
- The Thunder rank T1st in the league for blocks per game this season (6.6).
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Thunder needed to come out and throw their best punch in Game 5, but they didn’t do that all and now find themselves fighting to keep their season alive. The Mavericks haven’t been at their best in this series with players like Irving struggling to score consistently, but Doncic is coming off his best game of the series, and they’re getting plenty of help from PJ Washington. Expect to see the thunder coming out swinging here, but I don’t think it will be enough to sway me from taking the Mavericks at the short line at home.
