Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11) vs. Denver Nuggets (33-16)
February 1, 2026 9:30 pm EDT
The Line: Denver Nuggets +4.5; Over/Under: 227.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Denver Nuggets play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Ball Arena on Sunday night. Here’s a Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Nuggets vs Thunder Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder have cooled off a bit recently as they’ve dropped three of their past four games overall. They will be hoping to bounce back here after getting thrashed by the Timberwolves in a 123-111 road defeat on Thursday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 30 points and eight assists on 12 of 18 shooting, Chet Holmgren added 15 points with three blocks while Cason Wallace chipped in with 13 points off the bench. As a team, the Thunder shot 48 percent from the field and 11 of 31 from the 3-point line as they got off to a cold start and scored just 22 points in the first quarter to trail by 13 points at halftime. We kept waiting for the Thunder to fight back and go on a lengthy run, but all hope was squashed in the third quarter where the deficit ballooned to 22 points.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets have been in great form as they’ve won eight of their last 11 games overall and they will be gunning for a third straight win after blowing past the Clippers in a 122-109 win on Friday. Nikola Jokic led the team with 31 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists in just 25 minutes of action. Tim Hardaway Jr added 22 points on six of nine shooting off the bench, Peyton Watson added 21 points, and Jamal Murray chipped in with 20 points and nine assists. As a team, the Nuggets shot 55 percent from the field and 16 of 28 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 35 points in the first quarter to take the early lead. However, they didn’t gain full control of the game until they closed the third quarter on a 21-9 run to secure the impressive win at home.
Why the Denver Nuggets will win
- The Nuggets have won each of their last six games as underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Thunder have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last 12 games at Ball Arena.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 road games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 12 games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
- The Nuggets have lost each of their last five games against Northwest Division opponents after winning as underdogs.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last five night games against the Nuggets following a road loss.
- The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against the Thunder after winning as underdogs.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Thunder’s last four road games against the Nuggets following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Nuggets’ last six Sunday games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
Denver Nuggets Player Facts
- Peyton Watson is one of only four qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ranks 2nd amongst qualified Forwards for FT% (89.6%) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded 47 games with 3+ assists this season – most of any player in the league.
- Cason Wallace ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for steals per game (2.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (12.0).
- The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for three-point percentage this season (39.8%).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for points per game this season (120.3).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (108.0).
Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction
The Thunder are still missing Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, and Nikola Topic, while the Nuggets are still missing Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun. The Thunder could really do with a win to get their season back on track after losing three of their last four games. But now they are running into a red-hot Nuggets team who just smashed the Clippers in Jokic’s first game back from injury. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if the Thunder won this one by double digits on the road, but the Nuggets have been the more reliable team over the past couple of weeks. I think they maintain their momentum with a statement win over the Thunder in this spot.
