Dallas Mavericks (1-2) vs. Miami Heat (0-3)
October 26, 2026 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat -8.5; Over/Under: 236.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat meet Monday in NBA action at the Kaseya Center. Here’s a Heat vs. Mavericks Prediction. This article will include a Heat vs. Mavericks Pick.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks lost to the Spurs, beat the Pacers, and they play the Thunder next. The Mavs have lost 11 of their last 15 games.
The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 112.3 points on 50.8 percent shooting and allowing 118.3 points on 48.4 percent shooting. Cooper Flagg is averaging 23 points and 4 assists, while Kyrie Irving is averaging 19.5 points and 2.5 rebounds. P.J. Washington is the third double-digit scorer, and Naji Marshall is grabbing 3.3 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc and 71.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 40.3 rebounds per game.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat lost to the Hornets and Pistons, and they play the Hawks next. The Heat have lost 11 of their last 16 games.
The Miami Heat are averaging 109 points on 42.8 percent shooting and allowing 124.7 points on 47.6 percent shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.3 points and 8 rebounds, while Davion Mitchell is averaging 17 points and 8.7 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Bobby Portis is grabbing 6.7 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 30.3 percent from beyond the arc and 77.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 42 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 40 rebounds per game.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Heat have won 12 of their last 13 games against Southwest Division opponents after losing as favorites.
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last six games against Southeast Division opponents.
- The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites after losing as favorites.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against Southeast Division opponents.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Heat have lost three of their last four games as favorites against Western Conference opponents.
- The Mavericks have won each of their last two games as road underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents following a loss.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last six night games against the Heat following a home loss.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at Kaseya Center.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Mavericks’ last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Heat’s last six night games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Heat rank 29th in the league for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (43.7).
- The Heat rank 29th in the league for Q1 opponent points per game this season (35.3).
- Only 12.2% of the Mavericks’ scoring this season has come from the free-throw line – lowest mark in the league.
- Seven different Mavericks players have scored 15+ points in a game this season – equal-most in the league.
Heat vs Mavericks Injury Report
Pelle Larsson will be available for the Heat despite a finger issue.
The Mavericks will be without Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic, Dereck Lively, and Naji Marshall. Caleb Martin is doubtful with a thumb sprain. Cooper Flagg is questionable with a shoulder sprain.
Heat vs Mavericks Prediction
The Heat should win this game as they’re the better team on paper and have the health advantage. The Mavs are banged up, and this line will probably get bigger if Flagg doesn’t play. However, the Heat are 0-3 SU and ATS to start the season, and haven’t played a lick of defense. The offense looks clunky, and the missed defensive assignments are constant. The Heat have been torched in all three games and just lost to the injured Hornets. Laying this number with the Heat in their current form is insane. It’s Mavericks or pass for me.
