Minnesota Timberwolves (27-14) vs. Houston Rockets (23-14)
January 16, 2026 9:30 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Rockets -4.5; Over/Under: 223.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to the Toyota Center to battle the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Here’s a Rockets vs Timberwolves Prediction. This article will include a Rockets vs Timberwolves Pick.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been in great form as they’ve won six of their last seven games overall and they will be aiming for a third straight victory after getting trampled by the Bucks in a 139-106 road win on Tuesday. With Anthony Edwards out of the lineup, Julius Randle led the team with 29 points, eight rebounds, and six assists on 12 of 18 shooting. Bones Hyland added 23 points with five assists off the bench, while Naz Reid chipped in with 19 points on eight of 12 shooting. As a team, the Timberwolves shot a sizzling 60 percent from the field and 22 of 42 from the 3-point line as they hit the ground running with 76 points in the first half to take a 31-point lead into halftime. This allowed them to rest their starters early and give extended minutes to their reserves.
Houston Rockets Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have been in a rut lately as they’ve dropped four of their last five games overall. They will be hoping for a better effort after getting humbled by the Thunder in a 111-91 home defeat last night. Kevin Durant led the team with 19 points, seven rebounds and three assists, Jabari Smith Jr added 17 points with 10 rebounds while Alperen Sengun chipped in with 14 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. As a team, the Rockets shot just 34 percent from the field and seven of 24 from the 3-point line as they played scrappy defense through three quarters to stay within striking distance. However, they let themselves down in the fourth quarter where they got outscored by 34-16 to get blown out in their own building. Kevin Durant had a rough shooting night as he shot just seven of 23 from the field and zero of five from the 3-point line while Amen Thompson shot just four of 16 from the field for his 13 points.
Why the Houston Rockets will win
- The Rockets have won each of their last nine games as favorites against the Timberwolves following a loss.
- The Timberwolves have lost 17 of their last 19 road games against Rockets teams that held a winning record.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.
- The Rockets have covered the spread in each of their last four games following a home loss.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won each of their last 13 games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Rockets have lost each of their last six night games against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Rockets’ last seven games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Timberwolves’ last six road games against the Rockets following a road win have gone OVER the total points line.
Houston Rockets Player Facts
- Alperen Sengun ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for points in the paint per game (13.7) this season.
- Kevin Durant is one of only two qualified players in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (1.0) and free-throw percentage (89.4%) this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (71.7%) this season.
- Julius Randle is one of only two players in the league to have recorded 12+ assists without a turnover in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rockets rank 1st in the league for rebounds per game this season (49.4).
- The Rockets rank 1st in the league for opponent rebounds per game this season (38.2).
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for H2 win percentage this season (75.6%).
- The Timberwolves have used only five different starting fives this season – fewest in the league.
Rockets vs Timberwolves Prediction
The Timberwolves will again be playing without the injured Anthony Edwards, while the Rockets have ruled out Dorian Finney-Smith and Tari Eason once again. The Timberwolves are heading into this confidence full of confidence after smashing the Bucks in their last game without their leading scorer. They will like their chances against this stumbling Rockets team, who are now playing their second game of a back to back set. I would be comfortable backing the Rockets to bounce back if they were in better form, but they have been well below their best lately, and I think the shorthanded Timberwolves are good enough to take advantage.
