Lakers vs Warriors Prediction 10/21/26 NBA Picks Today

The Golden State Warriors were plagued by injuries last season and won only 37 games in the regular season to eventually fall short in the Play-In tournament. The Warriors decided to rebuild around Stephen Curry, and they decided to part ways with Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins, Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson, and Dennis Schroder to keep their veteran core.

The Warriors drafted Yaxel Lendeborg with the 11th overall pick, and they signed Georges Niang in free agency to provide floor spacing and frontcourt depth. The Warriors will be starting the season missing a key player with Jimmy Butler still out until at least January.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers went through another roller-coaster campaign under coach JJ Redick as they secured a second straight season with at least 50 wins.

The biggest headline for the Lakers was actually the exodus of LeBron James, who decided to move on to the Philadelphia 76ers, so the Lakers’ management decided to build around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. The Lakers also added Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton, Kevon Looney, and Quentin Grimes, but they decided to move on from Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Jaxson Hayes, and Luke Kennard.

Why the Los Angeles Lakers will win

• The Lakers have won each of their last five home games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Warriors have lost 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Lakers have covered the spread in each of their last four games against Pacific Division opponents.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Lakers have lost each of their last six season openers against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Warriors have won nine of their last 11 road openers against Western Conference opponents.
• The Lakers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home openers against Pacific Division opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 games between the Warriors and Lakers.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Warriors’ last eight night games at Crypto.com Arena have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Lakers’ last four season openers against Pacific Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Los Angeles Lakers Player Facts

• Luka Doncic ranked 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (33.5) last season.
• Walker Kessler has recorded 11+ rebounds in three consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Draymond Green has recorded 6+ assists in seven consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
• De’Anthony Melton led all Warriors players in steals per 36 minutes (2.5) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Lakers ranked 1st in the league for opponent blocks per game last season (3.5).
• The Lakers ranked 1st in the league for field goal percentage last season (50.2%).
• The Warriors ranked 1st in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game last season (44.1).
• The Warriors suffered the most road losses by a margin of five points or less last season (10).

The Warriors are missing Brandin Podziemski, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, and Jimmy Butler III, while the Lakers have ruled out Cameron Carr, with Collin Sexton listed as questionable. Both teams have been revamped heading into the new season, but we’re going to have to wait a little longer to see the Warriors anywhere near full strength.

The Lakers have plenty of player changes to adapt to, but they still have Reaves and Doncic to steer the offense while the Warriors are relying on plenty of new faces. The line is a bit high, but I still think the Lakers get off to a solid start with a win and cover in front of their home fans against a banged-up Warriors outfit.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Los Angeles -6.5